000 AGXX40 KNHC 071930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW MOVING E-NE ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH FRONT FORCING LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS SE QUAD OF LOW...MAINLY N OF 28N. MORNING OBS FROM OIL PLATFORMS OFF SE LA AND RECENT ASCAT A AND B PASSES INDICATE S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WAS IN 25-30 KT RANGE...BUT BUOYS NEVER REPORTED SEAS OVER 7 FT IN THIS AREA. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS THE SE STATES NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE EXITING OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS AROUND 12Z FRI. S/W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AIDING IN CNVTN ALONG FRONT AND THESE DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NE WITH LOW...TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE. WEAK FRONT TO DRAG ACROSS NRN GULF...CURRENTLY TO BRO AREA. VERY MOIST PBL ALONG UPPER MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTS TRAPPED BELOW STRONG INVERSION YIELDING LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS VSBYS 1-3 NM. WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO BRO BY 12 FRI...AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS W PORTIONS WHILE SINKING S THROUGH S FL TO THE STRAITS BY 12Z SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS REGION BEHIND FRONT OPENS UP ACROSS NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUN. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS BEHIND FRONT FRI WILL GRADUALLY VEER FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...INCREASING TO SE-S 20 KT NW QUARTER SAT NIGHT AND SPREADING BASIN WIDE 20-25 KT SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE BROKEN ACROSS SW N ATLC AND WILL BE NUDGED FURTHER NE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GULFMEX LOW MOVES NE TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E GULF WITH AND BEHIND WEAK LLVL PERTURBATION ALONG 67/68W ATTM...WHERE 5-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL. COLOMBIAN JET WEAK ATTM AND SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES THERE CONFINED S OF 13N WHERE PEAK SEAS ESTIMATED AT 9 FT THIS MORNING...1-2 FT ABOVE GLOBAL MODELS. GULFMEX FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CARIB PROPER...BUT WILL MOVE IN A BACK DOOR FASHION ALONG THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SUN AND MON AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO GREATLY ENHANCE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG NELY THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SAT NIGHT... SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF BASIN BY SUN NIGHT. NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES AND TRADE SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH SUN BEFORE FRONT REACHES NE CARIB MON AND NE WINDS 20-25 BEHIND AND BRIDGING ACROSS FRONT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NW PORTIONS MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LLVL VORT NEAR 27N68W DRIFTING W ATTM...WITH ASCAT PASS SUGGESTING SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN HSF. SLY FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 28N BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES OFF OUTER BANKS FRI...FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NW PORTIONS FRI MORNING...BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS 12Z SAT...AND THEN 31N55W TO TURKS AND CAICOS AND ALONG N COAST OF CUBA 12Z SUN. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT...MAINLY N OF 28N...AND S OF 25N BEHIND FRONT LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...SHIFTING SE WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NE CARIB SUN NIGHT-MON. NW SWELL BEHIND FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS N PORTIONS SUN AND INTO REMAINDER OF AREA MON...WITH PEAK SWELL E OF 72W AND REACHING NE CARIB ATLC COASTS 00Z TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING