000 AGXX40 KNHC 070615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EST THU FEB 07 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND LA AROUND SUNRISE THIS AM DEVELOPED MUCH EARLIER AND FURTHER S OVER THE GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W ON WED...AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR 29N93W AT 1008 MB...WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EXTREME S TX. PER CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE UKMET SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...AND THE GEFS MEAN IS SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE LOW WILL TRACK E-NE MOVING INLAND THE FL PANHANDLE AROUND SUNSET TODAY... DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR S AS 22N. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD WILL BE WEAK...IT WILL STILL PASS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE FRI NIGHT. BY THEN...SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL HAVE ALREADY SET UP OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ALL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE TX COAST AT SUNSET ON SUN. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ON MON...THEN DRIFTS THE REMNANTS BACK TO THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUE...WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED TO MOVE THE FRONT E AGAIN ON TUE MORNING. I BLENDED LATEST UKMET...ECMWF AND GFS FOR GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE 20 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 10-15 KT TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE FRI NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SAT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY CLOCKING TO THE N-NE AT 10-15 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SAT NIGHT INCREASING THE FLOW OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 20-25 KT BY LATE SUN...WHILE THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF N SWELL ARRIVES AT THE THE NORTHERN ATLC PASSAGES LATE SUN...AND AT THE NE ATLC PASSAGES ON MON. BLENDED UKMET... ECMWF AND GFS FOR GRIDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK DISSIPATING FRONTS STILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS E OF 70W WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED W OF 70W. SE RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...QUICKLY CLOCKING TO THE S THROUGHOUT DAY WITH S WINDS AT 20 KT THIS EVENING...AND S-SW WINDS AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA/FL COAST AROUND SUNRISE FRI. NOTE THAT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MUCH STRONGER JUST N OF THE AREA WITH GALE WARNINGS ALREADY POSTED FOR FRI. THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA AROUND SUNRISE SAT...AND FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL E CUBA SAT EVENING WITH LONG PERIOD N SWELL PROPAGATING S ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W OVER THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT FROM 25N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON SUN AS SE RETURN FLOW SETS OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS AND INCREASES AGAIN ON MON. BLENDED LATEST UKMET...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS INTO GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON