000 AGXX40 KNHC 061908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 PM EST WED FEB 06 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS MORNING HAS BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED..LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH NE TO SW ACROSS NE PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS OPENED UP INTO DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS S TEXAS. CUT OFF LOW THERE BEING NUDGED EWD AS S/W TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ROCKIES AND APPROACHES REGION FROM WEST. LOW FORECAST TO FORM ALONG TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MOVE E-NE ACROSS LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS...REACHING SE LA/MS DELTA BY 12Z THU...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W-SE TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF LOW TONIGHT AND THU MORNING AND LIFTING INLAND. LOW THEN FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NE AND REACH OUTER BANKS BY 12Z FRI AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EXTEND THROUGH BIG BEND REGION FRI MORNING W-SW TO LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING INTO TEXAS EARLY FRI AND INTO NW GULF FRI AFTERNOON. STILL SOME MODEST DIFFERENCES IN EXACT STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF LLVL LOW DURING THIS TIME...WITH 12Z RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PAST FEW RUNS. SE-S WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI ACROSS SE QUAD OF SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NRN GULF...MAINLY N OF 27N...WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT E OF 93W TONIGHT...MAXING NEAR 8 FT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF FL PANHANDLE. FRONT TO EFFECTIVELY MERGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND ERN GULF SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND SECOND FRONT SHIFTS E ACROSS SE U.S. AND OFFSHORE OF HATTERAS LATE SUN. FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN SAT NIGHT WILL VEER EARLY SUN AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF GULF...IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO SE BAHAMAS PRODUCE WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...YIELDING MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS ACROSS THE CARIB. BROAD TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIAN BASIN BLOCKING ENTRANCE OF ANY UPPER ENERGY INTO REGION ATTM BUT FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND REORGANIZE TO THE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS S/W ENERGY DIVE OVER RIDGE AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC. EXCEPT FOR NW PORTIONS...WHERE SELY FLOW OPENING INTO GULF OF MEXICO IS YIELDING SEAS 2-4 FT...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT AND 6 FT ACROSS MOST OF CARIB...WITH 1456Z ASCAT PASS REVEALING SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA S OF 13N...AND POSSIBLE TINY EMBEDDED AREA 25-30 KT. A 0850Z JASON PASS MEASURED SEAS 8-9 FT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A MAX OF 10 FT...AND THUS THE 25-30 KT LOOKED VALID AT THAT TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS E AND NE CARIB ATTM FOR MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI BEFORE LOW BEGINS TO BOMB OFF OF HATTERAS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA...FURTHER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS OFF OF E COAST BEHIND THIS FRONT SUN...FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E AND THEN SW IN BACK DOOR FASHION...DAMMING UP ALONG THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA MON AND REACHING PUERTO RICO MON NIGHT. STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL AFFECT NW PORTIONS AND BEGIN TO LIGHT UP S CENTRAL PORTIONS EARLY SUN...SPREADING E AND SE THROUGH MON. TRADES E OF THE ISLANDS CURRENTLY NE TO E AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP SEAS IN 6-7 FT RANGE. MODERATE TRADES AND MODEST SEAS EXPECTED UNTIL MON WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES NE CARIB AND NW PORTIONS OF AREA...WITH STRONG PULSE OF NW SWELL TO HIT REGIONAL WATERS MON THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... OLD BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY FROM ABOUT 29N66W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTERACTING WITH JET ENERGY ALOFT AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS NW ATLC...IGNITING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND SE OF BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH TRAPPED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO SE BAHAMAS. VERY MODEST PULSE OF NW SWELL AFFECTING E PORTIONS ATTM AND WILL FADE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE ATTM AND WILL QUICKLY PASS E OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING...MOVING INTO GENERAL AREA OF FRONTAL TROUGH AND STALLING EARLY THU...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP N OF THE BAHAMAS THU MORNING... BECOMING SW TO S 20-25 KT THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF GULF MEX COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA/FL COAST FRI MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N70W TO S FL EARLY SAT AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY SECOND COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 26N65W TO STRAITS OF FL EARLY SUN. LARGE NW SWELL EVENT BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED DUE TO BOMBING LOW OFF NE U.S. COAST AND STORM FORCE WINDS AND GREATER WILL MOVE INTO N WATERS EARLY SUN MORNING AND SPREAD S-SE ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MON. STRONG NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT MAY MASK AND CONFUSE LONG PERIOD WAVE ENERGY AND CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN INTERPRETING WW3 OUTPUT. WW3 SHOWING PEAK SEAS ALONG ABOUT 25N OF 9-11 FT BY 18Z MON...WHILE ECWAVE SHOWS 11-14 FT AT THAT TIME...AND WW3NFC ENSEMBLE SIMILAR TO ECWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE BLENDED ECWAVE WITH WW3 TO NUDGE WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. 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