000 AGXX40 KNHC 060623 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST WED FEB 06 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR THE MS DELTA TRAILING A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS AS FORECAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE E ALONG 29-30N THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE FL BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL THEN RACE NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT IN THE INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THIS FRONT/TROUGH INLAND ACROSS THE NW AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 31N90W AROUND SUNRISE THU...AND SHIFT RAPIDLY NE PASSING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE CAROLINAS ON THU NIGHT. THIS SECOND LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST THU EVENING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SE RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT... INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON SAT NIGHT...AND BECOMING S-SW ON SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST SUN EVENING. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS THIS NEXT FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE MS DELTA TO SE TX ON MON...BUT BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EVEN AFTER STALLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EXTREMELY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEATURES...AND EVEN THE TIMING...ALL WAY OUT TO MON. THUS...I BLENDED EQUAL AMOUNTS THE LATEST OF EACH MODEL INTO INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TRADES FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT. GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS BLENDED BOTH MODELS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM 31N57W TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST WITH WEAK REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT OBSERVED ON NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY LIFTING N ACROSS THE WATERS JUST TO THE S OF THE RIDGE...BUT SO WEAK THAT THEY HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE TODAY AND QUICKLY PASS E OF THE BERMUDA THIS EVENING...STALLING FROM 31N55W TO 23N68W EARLY THU...AND WEAKENING TO A TROUGH N OF 25N ALONG 67W LATE THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT DAY AND BECOMING S AT 20-25 KT THU EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA/FL COAST AROUND SUNRISE FRI. THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FL STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE SAT...AND FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ALONG 25N55W TO E CUBA LATE SUN. BLENDED LATEST SIMILAR GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON