000 AGXX40 KNHC 051950 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA WSW TO NEAR 25N97W...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N85.5W SW TO 28N89W TO 27N92W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM W TO E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF WHERE THE NRN STREAM JET STREAM EMERGES WITH THE SRN BRANCH. S-SW FLOW WILL IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF N OF THE RIDGE AS INDICATE IN THE LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORM REPORTS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1514 UTC THIS MORNING ALSO REVEALED THIS FLOW. THE BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS SHOW SEAS OF 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE WRN PART OF THE GULF FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING ALONG WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL TRENDS IN FORECASTING WEAK LOW PRES OF ABOUT 1015-1018 MB TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NEAR THE MS DELTA...AND MOVING E ALONG 30N TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE FL BIG BEND ON WED. THE LOW WILL TRAIL BOTH A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT W TO THE NE TX COAST. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO EARLY THU. GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR THE PATTERN TO REPEAT BY THU WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW FORMS JUST INLAND THE NRN COAST IN THE VICINITY OF SW LOUISIANA WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NE TO SW ALABAMA ...AND A STATIONARY FRONT WNW TO ACROSS FAR NE TEXAS. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO QUICKLY LIFT NE TO ACROSS SRN GEORGIA BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND FURTHER NE JUST INLAND THE U.S. E COAST FRI AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND TO OFFSHORE THE NE N CAROLINA COAST BY LATE FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING PER CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THE LATEST GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE APPEARS REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE AREA TO SE OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHILE SHIFTING E. AS A RESULT...SE RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW GULF BY EARLY SAT...AND INCREASES TO 15-20 KT SAT NIGHT. THIS FLOW THEN SPREADS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DURING SUN. FOR GRIDS WILL CONTINUE IN UTILIZING A BLEND OF 1/2 GFS AND ECMWF IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE ASCAT SWATH VALID 1516 UTC THIS MORNING PARTIALLY REVEALED NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE SW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. IN ADDITION SHIP "V7HP3" REPORTED NE 25 KT WINDS AT 18 UTC NEAR A PSN OF 13N77W WITH SEAS AROUND 10 FT. ANOTHER ASCAT PASS FROM 1336 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED LIGHTER NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER MOST OF THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE NE-E TRADES PREVAIL BASICALLY THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE SHIP MENTIONED IS LOCATED AND TOWARDS THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE. THE BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE SEAS OF 4-6 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR 3-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 7-10 FT IN SW CARIBBEAN. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SUN WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY IMPACT THE ERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THU INTO SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THU AND THROUGH SUN. GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED BOTH TO BLEND INTO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE TO BUMP SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N65W WSW TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1512 UTC THIS MORNING NICELY CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT FROM E-SE S OF THE RIDGE TO SW N OF THE RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THU AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BRUSH THE FAR NRN WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. AN AREA OF STRONGER HIGH WILL THEN BUILD SE OVER THE BASIN BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO THU. THIS NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL THEN ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD FRI AND SAT ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 28N65W TO W CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE SAT...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 24N65W TO ERN CUBA SUN. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS THE ENTIRE BEHIND THIS FRONT LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS OVER MICH OF THE ERN PORTION ON SUN IN LONG PERIOD N SWELLS. THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH MODEL APPEARS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WAVES WITH THESE SEAS ON SUN. SINCE SUN IS DAY 5...WILL TAKE A MODEST APPROACH WITH THESE SEAS IN THE FORECAST AND USE THE MEDIUM BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE GUIDANCES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE