000 AGXX40 KNHC 050609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM TAMPA BAY FL TO THE SE TX COAST. THE S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY N OF THE RIDGE WITH A WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR THE MS DELTA...AND MOVING E ALONG 30N TONIGHT...DISSIPATING NEAR THE FL BIG BEND ON WED. THE LOW WILL TRAIL BOTH A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT W TO THE NE TX COAST. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD WASH OUT ON WED NIGHT. THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO REPEAT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE W GULF ON THU... WITH ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT FORMING ALONG 30N THU AFTERNOON... WITH EVEN SOME HINT OF ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT FURTHER INLAND...AND SHIFTING E ALONG 31-32N THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI...THEN LIFTING RAPIDLY OUT TO THE NE LATE FRI PASSING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST THU EVENING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SE RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SAT NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EXTREMELY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT ON THE FEATURES...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WINDS...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THUS BLENDED EQUAL AMOUNTS THE LATEST OF EACH INTO INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REMNANTS SHOULD DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FURTHER S...THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE 20 KT...WITH SURGES TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT...WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI NIGHT... THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ONLY NE AT 20 KT. MODERATE TRADES FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL SUBSIDE ON FRI. GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS BLENDED BOTH INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS STALLING ATTM FROM 31N54W TO 24N65W TO SE CUBA. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BROADEN...ABOUT 180 NM WIDE...AND DRIFT NW THROUGH LATE WED. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N75W WILL SHIFT E-NE PASSING TO THE S OF BERMUDA TODAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NW WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE TODAY AND QUICKLY PASS E OF THE BERMUDA ON WED...AND MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT STALLING FRONT ON WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE MERGING FRONTS...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU...AND INCREASING THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA/FL COAST FRI EVENING. THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FL STRAITS ON SAT. BLENDED LATEST SIMILAR GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON