000 AGXX40 KNHC 041803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 04 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA REGARDLESS OF THE PREFERRED SOLUTION...THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE SOUTHERN INLAND PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL STATES TUE THROUGH FRI. THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEFS MEAN LOOK LIKE THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY BY THU WHEN THE ECMWF CARRIES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON A FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY E-NE TRACK THROUGH THE SE UNITES STATES COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION...SO A BLEND OF THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF WAS USED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA HAS SLACKENED SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT HUGGING THE COAST AS SEEN BY SHIP A8IP2 WHO REPORTED 24 KT NE WINDS NEAR 11N75W AT 1500 UTC. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL MAINLY BE NE AT 20 KT...WITH SURGES TO 25 KT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS GENERAL SCENARIO EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD. MODERATE TRADES FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY WITH LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FRI. GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT HERE...THUS BLENDED BOTH INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 1200 UTC WERE DECIDEDLY HIGHER THAN THE WW3 BUT IN LINE WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF WAVE MODEL. THE ECMWF WAVE MODELS WAS USED HEAVILY TO ADJUST THE GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC TODAY HAS SENT A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...CLEANING UP THE PREVIOUS MESS OF WEAK BOUNDARIES. THIS FRONT IS LOSING STEAM AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD...RAISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE TUE. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR N WATERS W OF 68W...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NW ON TUE NIGHT AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT WED LEAVING A BROAD BOUNDARY WIGGLING ACROSS THE SW ATLC FROM 30N55W TO 26N70W TO E CUBA. THIS WAVY BOUNDARY WAS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE FINE DETAILS...A BLEND OF THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF WAS PREFERRED HERE. DIFFERENCE BECOME LARGER ON THU AND FRI WHEN THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY MORE WOUND UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW N OF THE AREA THAN THE 1200 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SIDES WITH THIS SOLUTION AND THE GEFS MEAN SIDES WITH THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER