000 AGXX40 KNHC 040635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST MON FEB 04 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE MS DELTA EARLY TUE MORNING AND MOVE E ALONG 30N DISSIPATING NEAR THE FL BIG BEND EARLY WED AS THE WEAK FRONT ALSO MOVES INLAND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND WASHES OUT ON WED NIGHT. THE PATTERN SEEMS TO REPEAT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE W GULF ON THU WITH ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT FORMING ALONG 29N THU AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN SOME HINT OF ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SHIFTING E ALONG 29-30N THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EXTREMELY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT...THUS BLENDED EQUAL AMOUNTS THE LATEST OF EACH INTO INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING S ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SUN...BUT HAS RECENTLY STIRRED UP A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF AS FAR W AS 86W. THUS WILL RE-INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY...BUT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA BY EARLY TUE. DO EXPECT REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE E CUBAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. FURTHER S...THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE 20 KT...WITH SURGES TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT... WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TRADES FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY WITH LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FRI. GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS BLENDED BOTH INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE SERIES OF STALLED FRONTS AND NEW DRY AND RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CREATED A COMPLEX SURFACE ANALYSIS ON SUN. ALSO IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO MENTION ALL THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON TEXT PRODUCTS AND MAINTAIN SIMPLICITY FOR MARINERS. THE CURRENT NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N60W TO E CUBA...A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND A RAPIDLY MOVING DRY COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO ACROSS S FL TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N86W. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OVER THE WATERS E OF 55W WHILE LOSING IDENTITY OVER THE AREA W OF 55W TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERRUN THE FRONTAL TROUGH TODAY...WITH SINGLE COLD FRONT FROM 30N55W TO 24N62W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO E CUBA TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N PART ALONG 30N W OF 68W...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NW ON TUE NIGHT AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT WED NIGHT LEAVING A BROAD BOUNDARY WIGGLING ACROSS THE SW ATLC FROM 30N55W TO 26N70W TO E CUBA. REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT N ON THU IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OF THE GA/FL COAST LATE THU NIGHT...REACHING FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FL FRI NIGHT. BLENDED LATEST SIMILAR GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON