000 AGXX40 KNHC 030714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NE WATERS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE NORTHERN TX COAST WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A NW TO SE ORIENTATED RIDGE FROM THE TX/LA BORDER TO THE FL STRAITS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND DIP SE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. N-NE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TODAY DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY THEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS BECOMING S-SW MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUE...REACHING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS LATE TUE...THEN LOSING ITS PUSH AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ROUGHLY FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO 26N87W TO SE TX AT MIDDAY WED. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL LIFT N WED NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS THU MORNING...BUT SEEMS TO STALL FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE NE MEXICAN COAST LATE THU NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WEAK MIDWEEK SYSTEM. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS JUST S OF CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY NE 15-20 KT WINDS...SEAS 4-6 FT...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO E AT 15 KT LATE MON. FURTHER S...THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-25 KT VERIFIED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TRADES FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON WITH LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL REACHING THE NORTHERN PASSAGES ON MON AS WELL WITH THESE SWELLS CONTINUING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THU. GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS BLENDED BOTH INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AN INITIAL BROAD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL CUBA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM 31N62W TO 28N70W THEN IS LIFTING N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TO 31N76W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE GA COAST...AND WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MOMENTUM THIS MORNING RACING S TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND W-NW 25-30 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N WITHIN 540 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MERGE AND ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF BOTH OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SINGLE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO HISPANIOLA AT SUNRISE MON. BY THEN EXPECT ONLY A 20 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT TO THE N OF 28N ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SLOWS ON MON FROM 29N55W TO 26N60W WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE MON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SO WEAK THAT ITS IS DEPICTED AS A TROUGH ON THE GRAPHICS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MON NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE GA/FL COAST LATE TUE NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 15 KT SW-W WIND SHIFT OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N...WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL FROM NEAR 31N75W TO NE FL LATE THU. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON