000
AGXX40 KNHC 020659
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN 
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 
55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS BARELY EVIDENT ATTM OVER THE FAR NE GULF 
WATERS WHILE A BROAD RIDGE IS ORIENTATED NNE-SSW FROM COASTAL 
ALABAMA TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
WILL REPEAT WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE N-CENTRAL 
WATERS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RACE E ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND DIP SE ACROSS THE FAR NE 
WATERS EARLY SUN. NOTING THAT LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THIS NEXT 
FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER S ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO PERHAPS AS 
FAR S AS 26N. IN ANY EVENT...A RIDGE WILL BUILD W TO E FROM THE 
TX/LA BORDER TO THE FL STRAITS ON SUN WITH N-NE WINDS S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AGAIN SUN THROUGH LATE SUN 
NIGHT. THE RIDGE ORIENTATION WILL SHIFT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 
THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS E ALONG 
PERHAPS 35N ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 
KT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...BECOMING S-SW 
15-20 KT EARLY MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING 
OFFSHORE TX LATE MON NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE 
TUE...AND PASSING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE WED...WITH WINDS W 
OF THE FRONT ONLY AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTED A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE INDICATION 
OF A LOW CENTER. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS 
OFFICIAL FORECAST.            

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA WHILE A 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE ALSO SLOWING FROM 31N72W TO NE 
FL. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL NEARLY MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
WATERS TONIGHT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY IS 
STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT N AS A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT ON SUN JUST 
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY 
SUN. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE AMPLIFICATION OF 
THIS THIRD FRONT AND ACCELERATES IT SE AND ABSORBING THE 
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE TWO PRECEDING FRONTS...WITH A SINGLE 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA SUN EVENING...WITH 
THE FRONT FINALLY LOSING IS PUSH FROM 31N55W TO 23N65W TO E CUBA 
LATE MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28N IN THE WAKE 
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE TO 
JUST S OF BERMUDA EARLY TUE...WITH AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING 
BACK TO THE FL COAST AT 27N. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE N OF THIS 
RIDGE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NE FL COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO 
EARLY WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE FOURTH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE 
FAR NW WATERS LATE WED. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO 
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.          

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF HONDURAS IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WILL LIKELY BE 
DROPPED TODAY. GFS GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS A TROUGH EXTENDING N-S 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY WITH THE 
TROUGH MOVING W AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WATERS JUST S OF CUBA LATE SUN ACCOMPANIED BY NE 15-20 KT WINDS 
AND SEAS 4-6 FT. FURTHER S...THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO 
STRONG NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 25-30 
KT SURGES EXPECTED WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF 
COLOMBIA...THROUGH LATE SUN. THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH A 
MAX OF 25 KT ALONG COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE TRADES 
FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE LONG 
PERIOD SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS 
ON SAT REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUN...WITH ANOTHER 
ROUND OF NE SWELL REACHING THE NE PASSAGES LATE MON. LONG PERIOD 
N SWELL WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PASSAGES LATE TUE. BLENDED 
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.        

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLC...
.NONE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON