000 AGXX40 KNHC 011910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT EARLY SAT OVER THE SE WATERS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE THAT SHIFTS FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE NE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE NW GULF IS IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT. THE 1458 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL STILL LINGER BEHIND A FRONT SE OF THE AREA. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THIS STRONG WITH THE WINDS HERE. THE GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL IN THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH AGAINST THE CURRENT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SEAS ABOVE 8 FT AREA EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. SHIP KRPP REPORTED 10 FT SEAS NEAR 23N87W AT 1800 UTC....ABOUT 3 FT HIGHER THAN THE 1200 UTC WW3. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUN AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER TEXAS SUN MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO N FLORIDA MON. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THESE RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MON WHEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A VERY WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING E FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE 1200 UTC GFS TRACKS A WEAK LOW FROM NEAR DALLAS TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FL BIG BEND MON-WED WHILE THE 0000 UTC ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW FROM NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST AND WEAKENS IT TO A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS FINE SCALE FEATURE...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W WILL STALL OVER WATERS S OF 24N TONIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PUSHED EASTWARD BY A WEAK REINFORCING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER THIRD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SUN. THE TWO REMNANT BOUNDARIES TO ITS SE ARE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THIS THIRD COLD FRONT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. DESPITE THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO...THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT UNTIL THE THIRD FRONT BLOWS INTO N WATERS SUN. WHILE DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE ANCHOR LOW FOR THIS FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA ON SUN/MON...THE DIFFERENCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE RELATIVELY SMALL. MORE DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY LATE MON INTO TUE OVER NW WATERS WHERE THE ECMWF CARRIES A WEAK BOUNDARY OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WHILE THE GFS IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. WINDS ARE A LIGHT BREEZE AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT AT THIS TIME...SO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH. A BLEND OF THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST FROM LATE SUN ONWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WAS WELL CAPTURED BY THE 1458 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 84W. BUOY 42056 REPORTED 8 FT SEAS AT 1800 UTC. THE 1200 UTC GFS DOES A GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE WINDS...BUT ITS CORRESPONDING WW3 OUTPUT AND THE ECMWF WAVE ARE 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH THE WAVES AT BUOY 42056. THIS N WIND AGAINST THE CURRENT IS LIKELY CREATING HIGHER SEAS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS WERE BUMPED UP 1-2 FT BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE 1200 UTC WW3 GUIDANCE. THE GFS WINDS ALSO APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE 30 KT WINDS OBSERVED BY THE 1500 UTC ASCAT PASS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM EASTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY SAT NIGHT. THIS GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GFS FORECAST. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL TEMPORARILY SHRINK SUN INTO MON AS THE SERIES OF FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE SW N ATLC...WEAKENING RIDGING THERE AND DIMINISHING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE THIRD COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC SUN/MON WILL CLIP THE NW CARIBBEAN...BRINGING A FRESH NE BREEZE AND SEAS TO 7 FT ACCORDING TO BOTH THE 1200 UTC GFS/WW3 AND 0000 UTC ECMWF AND ITS WAVE MODEL. OVERALL...THE GFS/WW3 HAVE A REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE WW3 IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO SUBSIDE THE NE SWELL LATE SUN/EARLY MON THAN THE ECMWF WAVE. A BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE FIELD AND A BLEND OF THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF WAS USED FROM LATE SUN ONWARD TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD...AS SUGGESTED IN THE SECTION ABOVE FOR THE SW N ATLC. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER