000 AGXX40 KNHC 010717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST FRI FEB 01 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER N-CENTRAL WATERS WILL SHIFT W TO OVER INTERIOR TX TODAY AS A RE-INFORCING DRY COLD FRONT RACES SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT EARLY SAT OVER THE SE WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT BACK E ALONG 29N SAT TO A POSITION OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT EVENING...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TO NEAR 28N88W LATE SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RACE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...BUT NOT AMPLIFY FURTHER S TILL IT MOVES ACROSS FL. A RIDGE WILL BUILD W TO E FROM THE TX/LA BORDER TO THE FL STRAITS ON SUN. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO AN ORIENTATION FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS E ALONG 35N ACROSS THE SE CONUS. MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO E AT 10 KT ON MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST TUE MORNING...POSSIBLY WITH ITS PARENT WEAK LOW TRACKING E ALONG 30N TO NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE ON WED MORNING. BLENDED 00Z GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO NW CUBA WILL REACH FROM 31N63W TO E CUBA THIS EVENING...THEN STALL FROM 31N57W TO E CUBA LATE SAT. A RE-INFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL RACE INTO THE AREA FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT...AND STALL FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL FL LATE SAT...LEAVING TWO DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN. THE W SEGMENT OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL LIFT N AS A THIRD FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SUN...PASSING BERMUDA LATE SUN NIGHT...AND ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF BOTH FRONTAL TROUGHS RESULTING IN A SINGLE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO E CUBA ON MON. THIS MERGED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLIGHTLY N ON TUE AS A RIDGE SETS UP E-W ALONG 28-29N. BLENDED 00Z GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY...THEN FURTHER WEAKEN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N-S ALONG 87W ON SAT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING W AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 25-30 KT SURGES EXPECTED WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE SWELL REINFORCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON SAT REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUN. BLENDED 00Z GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON