000 AGXX40 KNHC 310842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 342 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED THROUGH THE GULF TODAY WITH NLY GALES CONTINUING PRESENTLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS S OF 24N W OF 92W. BUOY 42055 REPORTED PEAK SEAS OF 18 FT AT 04Z...WHICH WAS 7 FT ABOVE WW3 AND 5 OVER ECWAVE. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON WITH THESE FAST MOVING GALE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GULF...BUT USUALLY THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SEEN AT THE PEMEX BUOYS FARTHER S...WHERE PLATFORM BMO IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 14 FT...3 FT ABOVE WW3. FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NW COAST OF YUCATAN ACROSS ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALLOWING GALES TO BLAST THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT E OF 92W PRODUCING SEAS 9-14 FT...WITH 42001 NOW AT 12 FT...42036 AT 10 FT...AND SURPRISINGLY 42040 STILL REPORTING NW WINDS 29 KT AND 10 FT. THIS BUOY RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF WARM WATER AND COULD ACCOUNT FOR MIXING THERE. FRONT TO MOVE FROM BIMINI TO NW CUBA TO NE YUCATAN THIS AFTERNOON BY 18Z WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING N TO NE AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS TO SUBSIDE IN TURN. USING THESE LATEST BUOY OBS I HAVE TRIED TO RECALIBRATE SWH VALUES ACROSS THE GULF AND BLEND IN ECWAVE AND IS LIKELY A SUPERIOR FORECAST TO WW3 ATTM BUT PROBABLY BRINGING SEAS DOWN A BIT TOO FAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. MODELS FORECASTING 1030+ HIGH TO MOVE INTO OHIO VALLEY FRI AND WILL INTENSIFY GRADIENT BEHIND FRONTAL REMNANTS AND INCREASE NELY WINDS ACROSS SE PORTIONS TO 20-25 KT BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS E INTO ATLC SAT NIGHT AND SUN FOR RELAXING WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA LAST NIGHT HAS COLLAPSED WHILE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND E CARIB FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA LIKELY TO PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE SE SLOW HAS COMMENCED ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT BECOMING SLY THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS FAR NW CARIB BY 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH DAY 3. N-NE FLOW 20-25 KT WILL FILL THROUGH CHANNEL BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI AND VEER MORE NE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...ALLOWING SEAS ALONG MEXICAN AND BELIZE COASTAL WATERS TO BUILD 6-8 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING REGION TODAY WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 18.5-19N AND N OF PUERTO RICO. SLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...WITH 0252Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING S WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 27N AND 25-30 KT N OF 28.5N. FRONT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF OF NE FLORIDA COAST WITH WINDS THERE SHIFTING W. S/W SWINGING THROUGH E SIDE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND E U.S. WILL LIFT TO NE TODAY AND DRAG FRONT FROM 31N71W TO BIMINI BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND THEN SE OF BERMUDA...FROM 31N63W TO W CENTRAL CUBA BY 00Z SAT. AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...STRONG WINDS ON BOTH SIDE OF FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT OUT OF AREA BY TONIGHT...LEAVING FRESH WINDS TO PERSIST WITHIN 150 NM N OF FRONTAL REMNANTS THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES TO SHIFT INTO W ATLC LATE SAT THEN CONTINUE NE FOR REDUCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND WEAK LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS. RETROGRADING AND OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE HIGH SEAS AREA WILL GENERATE A LARGE NE SWELL EVENT FOR SE PORTIONS...THE NE CARIB ISLANDS AND TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...WITH BEST ENERGY DIRECT E OF THE AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023-025...GALE WARNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING