000
AGXX40 KNHC 302013
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN 
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 
55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY HIGH PRES 1026 MB ALONG 30N EXTENDS W INTO CENTRAL 
GULF TODAY AS COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF WATERS.  STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 89W 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...A TAD ABOVE GFS GUIDANCE.
FRONT SUPPORTED BY STRONG 100 KT JET CORE RIDING SHORT WAVE OVER 
SW LOUISIANA WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF GALE FORCE WARNING ACROSS MOST 
ZONES N OF 26N THROUGH TONIGHT.  SHORT WAVE SHIFTS NE THU AND 
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY FRI AND SAT AS FRONT CONTINUES SE.  GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN SW BAY OF CAMPECHE HIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT 
DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT.  SEAS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF GULF 
HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2-3 FT ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT GFS INCREASES 
HEIGHTS TO 13 FT TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY CATCHING UP WITH MARINE 
REPORTS.  HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE ALREADY 
HEADING NE AWAY FROM REGION.  FOCUS THEN SHIFT TO SW BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WHERE GALES AND 13 FT SEAS REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT 
THEN REMAIN AT NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY THU.  N SWELLS 
TOPPING 10 FT SUBSIDE LATE THU.   

FRONT REACH BIG BEND FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN EXTREME S 
FL TO NE YUCATAN EARLY THU.  HIGH PRES BUILD EASTWARD FROM TEXAS 
IN WAKE OF FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT DUE TO ATLC RIDGE MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.  MODERATE SE BREEZE W OF 78W BECOME FRESH NE 
BREEZE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES YUCATAN CHANNEL THU...STALLS FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS FRI. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
SHEAR LINE ALONG 19N-20N KEEPS MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU 
KEEPING FRESH E-NE TRADES S OF 22N THROUGH TROPICAL ATLC. 
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE PREVAILS WITH 
SLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS 
N OF BAHAMAS AHEAD OF FRONT.  

COLD FRONT REACH FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W EARLY TUE...BERMUDA TO 
CENTRAL CUBA EARLY FRI THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 27N65W TO 
EASTERN CUBA LATE FRI.  GUSTY FRESH BREEZE PREVAIL BEHIND COLD 
FRONT BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH AS FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE SAT.   

SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRUSH FAR NRN WATERS SUN.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE BRINGS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY 
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017-019-023-025...GALE WARNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLC...
.NONE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES