000 AGXX40 KNHC 300844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 344 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1026 MB HIGH NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE W ATLC NEAR 30N72W EXTENDS W THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE TEXAS COAST AND PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS ATTM...BUOY OIL PLATFORMS OFF LOUISIANA 25-30 KT...WITH 42361 AUGER GARDEN BANKS RECENTLY REPORTING 35 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND BUOYS INDICATING 20-25 KT WINDS. SEAS LIKELY 8-9 FT ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF FRONT...AND 6-8 ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 90W. S/W AND SPEED MAX HAS ROTATED NE THROUGH SE QUAD OF SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH AND NOW ACROSS ARK-MO...AND APPEARS BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE INLAND AS FRONT RACES ACROSS GULF TODAY...ENHANCING STRONGEST CNVTN ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...BUT WITH SCAT TSTMS ALONG FRONT N OF 24-25N. MODELS STILL ON AGREEMENT ON GALES IN NNW FLOW BEHIND FRONT TODAY...LIKELY STARTING 12-15Z S OF 26N. GOES SST ANALYSIS INDICATES WATERS OFF OF SE TEXAS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH S OF 27N FOR GALES TO MIX DOWN THERE AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECAST AND TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER STARTING TIME. GALES EXPECTED TO SHIFT S AND SE BEHIND FRONT ALL THE WAY TO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SHOULD END 03-06Z AS NLY FLOW BLASTS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PEAK SEAS IN ECWAVE...TO PRODUCE BROAD AREA OF 9-11 FT ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS W OF 92W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PEAK SEAS 12-13 FT. GALES BEHIND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT NOT ONLY SW ZONES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...BU ALSO SMALL PORTIONS OF GMZ019 AND GMZ025. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM BIG BEND AREA OF PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z THIS EVENING...FROM EXTREME S FL TO INTERIOR YUCATAN BY 12Z THEN SE OF BASIN BY 00Z FRI. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN AS A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... 0500 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NE-E 20 KT OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NE-E WINDS OF 15-25 KT ARE STILL SUGGESTED THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE C6VG7 RECENTLY REPORTED 9 FT SEAS. A 2140 ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 6-9 FT IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN MODELS SINCE...BUT STILL BUYING 8 FT THERE ATTM. SEAS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA LIKELY 11-12 FT AND 1-2 FT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE. THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI ALLOWING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU. MODELS DEPICT THAT THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND FRONT ACROSS NW CARIB AND 20-25 KT THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE SEAS 7-9 FT EXPECTED IN WIND AGAINST CURRENT. N-NE SWELL WILL BUILD S DOWN W CARIB COASTLINES AND REACH GULF OF HONDURAS FRI MORNING. PULSES OF LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL MIX WITH NE TRADE WIND SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO KEEP SEAS 7-10 FT THERE NEXT FEW DAYS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL REMNANTS HAVE MOVED S TO ALONG 20N N OF PUERTO RICO THEN W-NW INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS YIELDING FRESH ENE TRADES S OF 22N THROUGH THAT REGION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS N OF BAHAMAS TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT...PEAKING AT 25-30 KT N OF 29N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GALES JUST N OF THE AREA BY 00Z. THE GULF FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO PALM BEACH BY 12Z TUE AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N80W BY 12Z FRI THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR FROM NEAR 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI NIGHT. STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL BE BRIEF AND VEER QUICKLY N TO NE BY FRI NIGHT...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 26N BEHIND FRONT AND THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 6-8 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 5-7 FT IN LEE OF BAHAMAS. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE N-NE AT 10-15 KT FRI AND SAT. WINDS DIMINISH ENTIRE AREA SUN TO NE-E 10-15 KT JUST ABOUT ALL ZONES...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW STRIP OF NE 15-20 KT JUST NW OF FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BRUSH THE FAR NRN WATERS SUN... BUT PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE AS OF NOW SHOW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF IT WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017-019-023-025...GALE WARNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING