000 AGXX40 KNHC 291855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM FROM THE WESTERN ATLC W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WELL ESTABLISHED VERY MOIST SLY WIND THROUGHOUT CONSISTING OF 15-20 KT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE NW PORTION. OBSERVED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 3-5 FT MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR 6-7 FT IN THE NW GULF...AND 4-6 FT IN THE SE GULF WITH SEAS TO OF 7-8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRES PRESENTLY ANALYZED WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO SPREAD E TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THE MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES FROM THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER OFF SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES TO A POSITION FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST SE OF THE AREA THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRES JUST SE OF THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO LINGER IN THE SE PORTION FRI AND SAT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME SOME. SEAS IN THE SE PART OF THE GULF AT THAT FRI THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ABOUT 20-25 KT WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF WED INTO THU... AND SMALL POCKET OF GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT MAINLY S OF 25N W OF 94W STARTING WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED EVENING. THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS REVERSED ITS PREVIOUS TREND OF KEEPING WINDS BELOW GALE IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NOW ADVERTISES THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE MEAN 34 KT PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO RISEN FOR THAT AREA. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST AS OF THIS MORNING FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT IN THE SW GULF WED...BUT POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER. THE WINDS DIMINISH DURING WED EVENING AND THROUGH THU NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOST ZONES BUT THE FAR E AND SE SECTIONS AS STATED EARLIER. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...THE 14222 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 75-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA....AND NE-E 20 KT OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE NW PORTION. THE SMALL POCKET OF GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA APPEARS TO DIMINISHED TO JUST BELOW GALE STRENGTH...HOWEVER MAX SEAS OF 14 FT THERE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI ALLOWING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU. MODELS DEPICT THAT THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. NE WINDS INCREASE SOME...TO 20 KT...OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND LAST INTO SUN. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL BE REPLACED BY OTHER NW-N SWELLS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU...THEN BE CONFINED TO S OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W BY FRI WITH SEAS THERE IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT LINGERING INTO SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER AT 30N72W...AND A DISSIPATING FRONTAL ALONG 19N E OF 71W. THE 1420 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JUST E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. BUOYS AND SHIP REPORTS SHOW SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN NE SWELLS S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN NE SWELLS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT N OF 27N W OF 79W. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN TO E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE INTO WED OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COASTS LATE WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THU NIGHT...FROM NEAR 31N65W TO 25N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY FRI...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR FROM NEAR 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N WED AND THU WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF ABOUT 30N. BY FRI THE SLY WINDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 20-25 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NW 20-25 KT N OF 28N AS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED BY GFS/ECMWF/UKMET GUIDANCE WED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING N AND DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT FRI...AND NE 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM NW OF THE DECAYING FRONTAL TROUGH FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE N-NE AT 10-15 KT FRI AND SAT. WINDS DIMINISH ENTIRE AREA SUN TO NE-E 10-15 KT JUST ABOUT ALL ZONES...EXCEPT FOR A STRIP OF NE-E 15-20 KT S OF 21N E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE NW PORTION. SEAS SUBSIDE AS WELL OVER THE BASIN...WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LINGERING HIGHER SEAS OF 7 FT IN THE SE PORTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BRUSH THE FAR NRN WATERS SUN... BUT PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE AS OF NOW SHOW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF IT WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017 AND GMZ023...GALE WARNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE