000 AGXX40 KNHC 290826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 326 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC OPENING UP ACROSS THE GULF AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FAR W TEXAS THIS MORNING. S-SE FLOW 15-20 KT BEING REPORTED ACROSS NW GULF W OF 90W...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING OVER COLD SHELF WATERS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE THERE THIS MORNING. 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG LLVL INVERSION JUST BELOW 4K FT. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS WHERE SEAS LIKELY 6-7 FT ATTM. S/W ACROSS NE GULF MOVING OVER UPPER RIDGE HELPING TO INITIATE ISOLATED DEEP CNVTN NEAR 26.8N85W WITH LLVL TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY WNW AND AWAY FROM UPPER SUPPORT...CNVTN SHOULD FADE NEXT FEW HOURS. W ATLC HIGH WILL SETTLE E-SE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN... AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES NW WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING LLVL S FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF 92W THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING NE INTO N CENTRAL PORTIONS...AS FRONT REACHES TEXAS COAST BEFORE 06Z TONIGHT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ACROSS GULF WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REACHING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO TAMPICO BY 12Z WED AND TLH TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BU 00Z THU. GALES STILL A POSSIBILITY BEHIND FRONT S OF 25N FROM AROUND 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z THU...WITH GFS ENSEMBLE PROBS NOW BACK UP TO 40 PERCENT. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 10-12 FT IN THIS AREA OF POTENTIAL GALES LATE WED-WED NIGHT AND HAVE TRIED TO BUMP UP WW3 OUTPUT CLOSER TO ECWAVE. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING SQUALL LINE AND VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SE ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL GULF...WITH VERY GOOD DYNAMICS TO ACCOMPANY SHARP UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OF BASIN LATE THU AFTERNOON...WITH LONG FETCH OF NELY FLOW BEHIND FRONT TO KEEP SEAS UP TO 9 FT WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH NEAR 31N68W AND NEARLY DUE N OF COLOMBIA BASIN...AND GALES ARE ASSUMED TO BE OCCURRING ATTM...WITH GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11N-13N. AN EVENING 2110 ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 9-12 FT ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE GALE AREA...AND WILL LIKELY BUILD HIGHER TO 14 FT AS FORECAST PAST RUNS OF WW3. PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 0150Z SHOWED 25-30 KT S OF 13.5N E OF 75W. NOCTURNAL MAX SHOULD END AROUND 12Z AND GALE WILL END THEN...BUT WITH ATLC HIGH SETTLING E-SE NEXT FEW DAYS...FRESH TRADES TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND S OF BARAHONA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS THERE. NLY SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY N PORTIONS...BUT STILL PEAKING FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON...AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BRIDGES ACROSS IT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL REMNANTS ALONG 21N EXTEND W-NW ACROSS S AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WILL SLOWLY SINK S ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. FRESH ENE WINDS AROUND 20- KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WATERS S OF 23N W OF 68W TODAY...VEERING SE THROUGH THE STRAITS...WITH STRONGER WINDS THROUGH PASSAGES AND WHERE LAND-SEA INTERACTION AND TOPOGRAPHY DOMINATES. RETURN FLOW ALREADY SET UP NW PORTIONS AND FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 26N WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 32N70W TO BELIZE BY 00Z FRI...WEAKENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA TO 29N65W BY LATE FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N WED AND THU WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE WINDS OF 30 KT N OF 30N. WINDS BEHIND EXPECTED TO BECOME NW 20-25 KT N OF 28N WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NE 20-25 KT BEHIND STATIONARY BOUNDARY S OF 27N FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING