000 AGXX40 KNHC 281947 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM FROM THE WESTERN SW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 1-3 FT MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR 4-7 FT IN THE WRN GULF...AND 4-6 FT IN THE SE GULF WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN FAR SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRES PRESENTLY ANALYZED WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO SPREAD E TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. A PRETTY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT MAY HELP TRIGGER OFF A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES TO A POSN FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST SE OF THE AREA THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SW PART OF THE ATLC SHOULD ALLOW FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO LINGER IN THE SE PORTION FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 6-8 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ABOUT 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF WED INTO THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT OR 12 FT IN THE SW GULF WED. I INDICATE THIS IN THE UPDATED WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES LOWER WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE WRN GULF...AND MAY VERIFY IF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT TURNS OUT TO BE A LOT WEAKER THEN ANTICIPATED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE 1442 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHTER NE-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE NW PORTION. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INITIATE GALE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST AROUND 6 HRS...BUT WELL CONTINUE A BIT LONGER. 11 FT SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BY THE ECMWF...TO BUILD TO 14 FT TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 FT OR 11 FT LATE WED AND THU. NLY SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU...AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS SE BEHIND AND ACROSS IT. A PULSE OF LONG PERIOD N SWELLS THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN MAINTAINING MAX SEAS OF 7-10 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW-N SWELLS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND INTO THU...THEN BE CONFINED TO S OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W BY FRI WITH SEAS THERE SUBSIDING FROM 9-11 FT TO AROUND 9 FT SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 40N65W SW TO 24N73W AND NW TO THE COAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE SE COAST OF GEORGIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1438 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 25N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 65W WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. BUOYS AND SHIP REPORTS SHOW SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN NE SWELLS S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH A NARROW STRIP OF 7-9 FT SEAS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS TO THE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN NE SWELLS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 4-5 FT N OF 27N W OF 79W. THESE VALUES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOAA GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE THE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DONE BY ABOUT 2 FT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS BEEN ADVERTISED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE S TO NEAR 24N TONIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING ...WITH ITS REMNANTS REACHING THE FAR SE WATERS AS A SHEAR LINE TUE MORNING. THE COASTAL WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE ARE OF HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ESE WITH ITS CENTER TO REACH A POSN NEAR 30.5N69W BY TUE MORNING...AND TO THE FAR NE PORTION BY WED. ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE INTO WED OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COASTS WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW CUBA BY LATE THU...FROM NEAR 27N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WEAKENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO FAR NW CUBA BY LATE FRI...AND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR 26N65W TO 25N68W AND SHEAR LINE TO ALONG THE N CENTRAL CUBAN COAST SAT. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N WED AND THU WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF 29N. BY FRI THE SLY WINDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 20-25 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NW 20-25 KT N OF 28N ALSO BY GFS/ECMWF/UKMET GUIDANCE WED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING N AND DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT FRI...AND NE 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM NW OF THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE FRI AND SAT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE N-NE AT 10-15 KT FRI AND SAT. SEAS SHOULD BE AROUND 7-10 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...AND 6-9 FT BEHIND IT N OF 28N. SEAS SUBSIDE FRI AND SAT MOST ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY UP 9 OR 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 240 NM NW OF OF THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE FRI AND SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE