000 AGXX40 KNHC 280814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER RESIDING OVER NE GULF PAST FEW DAYS HAS COLLAPSED AS FORECAST...WITH DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA BIG BAND NOW DRIFTING N INTO SRN GEORGIA. 1034 MB HIGH NEAR OUTER BANKS WILL DOMINATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SHIFTS E-SE INTO THE W ATLC. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW ELY WINDS 20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND INTO OFFSHORE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 6-7 FT. WW3 ABOUT 0.5-1 FT LOW ACROSS W AND NW SECTIONS PER 07Z OBS AND APPEAR REASONABLE ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN...SETTLING S OF BERMUDA TUE WITH E-W RIDGE ACROSS ATLC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS AND ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGIME...WITH A GRADUALLY VEERING OF WINDS THROUGH TUE. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE AS IT QUICKLY MOVES TO A LINE FROM NEAR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING...AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ABOUT 20-30 KT...AND BUILDING SEAS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE MAY JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST EARLY WED...AND IN THE FAR SW GULF DURING WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LOWER WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE GALE PROBABILITIES NOW ONLY 10 PERCENT AT 18Z WED. STILL FEEL THERE IS CHANCE FOR GALES ALONG LOWER MEXICAN COAST AND INTO FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE. WW3 SLOW TO BUILD SEAS BEHIND FRONT AND PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUILDING SEAS 10-12 FT W OF 94W LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... OLD SHEARLINE NOW EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS ERN CUBA AND BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ENE WINDS 15-20 KT SUGGESTED BY PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OCCURRING IN LEE OF CUBA WHERE SEAS LIKELY AROUND 6 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 80W MODERATE ENE FLOW PREVAILS EXCEPT 20-25 KT OFF COLOMBIA...WHERE MAX SEAS ARE UP TO 10 FT. AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES E-SE OFF THE E COAST OF U.S. THROUGH TUE...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH FRESH ENE TRADES BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. AS THE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY N OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THE COLOMBIA NOCTURNAL WIND MAX IS EXPECTED TO REACH 35 KT BRIEFLY...AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS GALE IN HSF...BUT ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST AROUND 6-9 HRS. AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...SEAS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS WILL BUILD 10 TO 14 FT MON NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 OR 11 FT LATE WED AND THU. LONG PERIOD NNW SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A NEW PULSE FROM CURRENT COLD FRONT ACROSS N ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INTO SAME WATERS TUE. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU...AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS SE BEHIND IT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S ACROSS N PORTIONS OF AREA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO 25.5N69W TO 31N50W...AND EXPECTED TO DRIFT S ACROSS FLORIDA AND BECOME DIFFUSE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE CONTINUING SE ACROSS WATERS E OF 70W...REACHING NEAR W TO E ALONG 23.5N BY 00Z TONIGHT AND TO 22N 00Z WED. SHEARLINE TO THE S AND THROUGH ERN CUBA WILL ALSO DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. NNW SWELL FROM PREVIOUS EVENT NOW SUBSIDING ACROSS SE PORTIONS...AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH WW3 FORECAST STILL ABOUT 2 FT LOW S OF 18N E OF 60W. AS THE HIGH SETTLES S OF BERMUDA TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO WED OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COASTS WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW CUBA BY FRI MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLY 20-30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N LATE WED AND THU. SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 7-11 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...AND 6-9 FT BEHIND IT N OF 28N THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING