000 AGXX40 KNHC 271910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO NE MEXICO. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS REVEAL E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...EXCEPT SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 23N W OF 94W AND NE-E 15-20 KT S OF 26N E OF 87W WITH SUSTAINED NE-E 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 1-3 FT MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR 4-7 FT IN THE WRN GULF ...AND 4-6 FT IN THE SE GULF WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRES PRESENTLY ANALYZED WILL BE REPLACED WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S ACROSS THE ERN GULF THROUGH MON. THIS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO SPREAD E TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS IN PRETTY AGREEMENT THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT QUICKLY MOVES TO A LINE FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING...AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS FRI...BUT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR NE 20 KT WINDS THERE WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 7-9 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ABOUT 20-30 KT...AND BUILDING SEAS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE MAY JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST EARLY WED...AND IN THE FAR SW GULF DURING WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ADVERTISE LOWER WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE WIND GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A GALE WARNING HEADLINE FOR THE FAR SW GULF ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARE PASSING JUST TO THE SSW AND OF HAITI AND APPROACHING JAMAICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE 1502 UTC ASCAT PASSE SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A POCKET OF NE 20-30 KT WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WHERE MAX SEAS ARE UP TO 10 FT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE OFF THE E COAST OF U.S. THROUGH MON NIGHT TIGHTENING UP THE PRES GRADIENT EVEN MORE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE NE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT...BUT ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST AROUND 6-9 HRS. IT MAY HAVE TO POSSIBLE BE EXTENDED PENDING LATEST DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE DURATION OF THE STRONG GRADIENT THERE. THE 10 FT SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...AND TO LESSER EXTENT BY THE ECMWF...TO BUILD TO 14 FT MON NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 OR 11 FT LATE WED AND THU. LONG PERIOD NNW SWELLS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU...AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS SE BEHIND IT. A PULSE OF LONG PERIOD N SWELLS THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN MAINTAINING MAX SEAS OF 7-10 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW-N SWELLS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC WED AND THU...AND BE CONFINED TO S OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W BY FRI. THESE SWELLS SHOULD BRING UP SEAS AGAIN TO THE 9-10 FT RANGE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N65W SW TO 28N74W TO INLAND FLORIDA TO VICINITY OF DAYTONA BEACH. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST NNE TO ALONG THE SE COAST OF GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN THE CLEARLY VISIBLE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ALIGNED ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG ...AND JUST OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED TO THE S OF THE FRONT...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES IS TO ITS N. THE 1458 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT AS DID BUOYS N OF 31N. SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN N TO NE SWELLS S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. THESE VALUES AGAIN ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE S TO NEAR 27N THIS EVENING...AND TO NEAR 26N MON MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING AS THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS N SHIFTS ESE. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND INLAND MON AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE FAR NE PORTION BY TUE EVENING AND WEAKEN ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE INTO WED OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COASTS WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW CUBA BY LATE THU AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WEAKENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO FAR NW CUBA BY LATE FRI. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SLY 20-30 KT WINDS AT THE BNDRY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N WED AND THU WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE WINDS N OF 30N. BY FRI THE SLY WINDS SHOULD BE ABOUT 20-25 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NW 20-25 KT N OF 28N ALSO BY GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE WED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING N AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT FRI. SEAS SHOULD BE AROUND 7-10 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...AND 6-9 FT BEHIND IT N OF 28N. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE