000 AGXX40 KNHC 261948 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF AT 27N84W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO FAR NE MEXICO...AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS REVEAL GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AND RATHER LOW SEA STATE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGES OF 1-3 FT MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 26N TO 28N W OF 94W...AND IN THE FAR SE GULF PORTION. SEAS WERE ADJUSTED 2-3 FT UPWARDS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE WRN STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH MON. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE ONLY SMALL CHANGES INTO LATE TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S INTO THE REGION INTO MON. THIS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO SPREAD E TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. PER CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS...THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY ON WED...REACH FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING...AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF THU AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. THE LATEST GFS MEAN 34 KT PROBABILITIES ADVERTISES A BRIEF 30 PERCENT OF GALES IN THE FAR WRN GULF WED. WILL HOLD FOR NOW IN MENTIONING GALE HEADLINES IN THE FORECAST TILL MORE CONSISTENCY WITH FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOTED WITH THE PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS WITH STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THU...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING SOMEWHAT TIGHT IN THE FAR SE GULF TO ALLOW FOR N-NE 20 KT THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROUGH SURFACE FROM JUST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SSE TO NEAR 14N66.5W ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HAS A GOOD TRACK HISTORY OVER THE PAST 48-72 HRS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT AS ITS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ASCAT PASSES FROM 1342 UTC AND 1524 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED GENERALLY NE-E WINDS OF 15 KT THROUGHOUT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE A FEW SHIPS ARE REPORTING NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH ONE SHIP "A8MX4" AT 12N77W REPORTING SEAS OF 10 FT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE OFF THE E COAST OF U.S. THROUGH SUN NIGHT TIGHTENING UP THE PRES GRADIENT EVEN MORE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE NE 20-25 KT CURRENTLY OBSERVED THROUGH DAY 5 (THU)...WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 10 FT SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...AND TO LESSER EXTENT BY THE ECMWF...TO BUILD TO 13 FT TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 OR 11 FT LATE WED AND THU. A PULSE OF LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN MAINTAINING MAX SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SWELLS THEN SUBSIDE SOME SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER BATCH OF N SWELLS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC WED AND THU...AND PERHAPS THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AGAIN AS MORE VIVIDLY ADVERTISED BY THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. THESE SWELLS SHOULD BRING UP SEAS AGAIN TO THE 9-10 FT RANGE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N65W SW TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS S AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CENTRAL AND WRN CUBA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W SW TO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE 1522 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED W-NW WINDS OF 15 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH N OF 28N...AND S-SW 20-25 KT AHEAD OF IT N OF 28N. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH ALSO N OF 28N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE....EXCEPT S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE BUOY 41046 AT 24N68W IS REPORTING MAX SEAS OF 11 FT IN N SWELL. THESE VALUES AGAIN MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES S INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 27N65W NW TO 30N81W BY EARLY SUN EVENING...AND DISSIPATE MON. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE AREA MON THROUGH WED INCREASING NE WINDS OVER THE S PORTION. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...AND FORECAST THE LARGE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY PRESS SE TOWARDS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE FAR ERN PORTION LATE WED ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS TO SPREAD E. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. COAST LATE WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W SW TO NEAR 25N75W THEN WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THU. GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N THU WITH NW WINDS OF AROUND 20-25 KT BEHIND IT N OF 29N. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE