000 AGXX40 KNHC 260813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF...CENTERED ON A 1024 HIGH MEANDERING ABOUT THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW TO MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR TUXPAN. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS FAR SE PORTION THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SELY RETURN FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND WILL BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 EXCEPT 15-20 KT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN LEE OF ROCKIES...THEN LIFTS NE SUN NIGHT. HIGH TO COLLAPSE ACROSS NE GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALLOW 1031 MB HIGH ALONG ERN SEABOARD TO DOMINATE...AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF TO INHIBIT THE NEXT FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM ENTERING THE GULF AS THEY BECOME ILL DEFINED ACROSS N AND NW FLORIDA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE 12Z WED...AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND UKMET...WITH ECMWF ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. STRONG NLY FLOW ADVERTISED BY MODELS BEHIND FRONT ALONG MEXICAN WATERS...WITH 30 KT EXPECTED THERE...AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GALES ATTM. GFS ENSEMBLES PROBS NOW SHOWING 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALES BY 18Z WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... MODEST PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SW N ATLC NEAR 31N63W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH NRN WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH OBS AND PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTING ENE WINDS 20 KT BETWEEN BOUNDARY AND SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 25N THERE. THIS FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CUBA WITH NELY FLOW NEAR 20 KT IN LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE CAYMANS. A 2210Z ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS NW CARIB SHOWED LARGE AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DRAINAGE PLUME ACROSS CUBA...WITH SEAS CLOSER TO CAYMANS LIKELY 8-9 FT. WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC TODAY WILL COLLAPSE SUN AFTER WEAK FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING STRONGER HIGH PRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ACT TO FRESHEN THE TRADES ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN AND BRING WINDS 25-30 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA...WITH GFS SUGGESTING CHANCE FOR MINIMAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA AT TIME OF NOCTURNAL MAX MON-TUE-WED NIGHTS. SEAS TO BUILD 7-10 FT ACROSS S AND SW PORTIONS AND 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 17N E OF 80W. A SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF NNW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF THE NE CARIB ISLANDS...AND THROUGH THE PASSAGES TO RAISE SEAS 7-8 FT IN PASSAGES TONIGHT AND SUN. BUOYS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 70W HAS BEEN SHOWING WAVE ENERGY ABOVE WW3 FORECASTS SINCE LAST NIGHT AND WILL WW3 FORECAST FOR PUERTO RICO REGION LIKELY 1-2 FT LOW FOR SUN DUE TO THIS. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE HIGHER ECMWF INTO WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW BIAS OF WW3. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXED NNW AND NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND PULSE OF NNW SWELL ARRIVES SUN...BUILDING SEAS 9-11 FT IN THE THE NRN PORTION AND OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PORTION. THESE SWELLS SUBSIDE MON AND TUE...BUT YET ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS ALSO IN THE 9-10 FT MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NRN PORTION WED PER LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT APPEARS TWO SEPARATE BOUNDARIES LINGER ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THIS MORNING...AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH NOW THROUGH NW BAHAMAS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO YIELDING ELY WINDS 20 KT AND VERY CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A THIRD FRONTAL SEGMENT OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA IS GETTING PICKED UP BY S/W MOVING OFF E COAST OF U.S. AND PRODUCING DEVELOPING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND THEN SETTLE SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE NEXT FRONT SINKS S TO ALONG 30N TONIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND IT ALONG THE E COAST OF U.S. A 0256Z ASCAT PASS ACROSS NW PORTIONS SHOWED SLY WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG AND JUST E OF THIS DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT SE THIS MORNING. N TO NW SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NRN LEEWARDS BY THIS EVENING...AND AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WW3 LIKELY 1-2 FT LOW BASED ON BUOY OBS PAST 2 NIGHTS. A 2110Z ALTIMETER PASS THIS EVENING SHOWED WW3 LOW BIT A FT OR SO JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WHERE A MAX OF 1O FT WAS INDICATED...WHILE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SEAS WERE ALSO A FEW FT ABOVE WW3...WITH A MAX OF 12 FT BETWEEN BUOY 41047 AND NW BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 8-12 FT WILL PREVAIL E OF 76W TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. NEXT PULSE OF NW SWELL TO MOVE THROUGH WATERS MAINLY E OF 70W MON-TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN MON-WED AND INDUCE FRESH TRADES S OF 24N. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING