000 AGXX40 KNHC 250814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF...CENTERED ON A 1027 HIGH OVER THE NE GULF...EXTENDING W-SW TO MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR TUXPAN...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND WILL SPREAD E TO 88W TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF TO INHIBIT THE NEXT FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM ENTERING THE WATERS...ONLY SINKING TO NEAR 31N. WEAK BACKDOOR BOUNDARY MAY SINK INTO NE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT SUN NIGHT AND LIFTING N. RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS W PORTIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. NEXT MAJOR FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GULF WED WITH STRONG FLOW BEHIND FRONT ALONG MEXICAN WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GALES THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER PASSES HAVE MISSED THE AREA OFF OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT...WITH A 0408Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS E OF 75W THERE. NE FLOW 20-25 KT DEPICTED BY 0314Z ASCAT PASS IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW OF SHEAR LINE PERSISTING THROUGH ERN CUBA SW TO NEAR 18N84W. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AS BROAD LOW PRES PREVAILS TO THE N ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. FRESH NELY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NW OF SHEARLINE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES EARLY SAT. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF E COAST OF U.S. TODAY BEHIND CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SE ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS...AND WILL RE-ESTABLISH A MODEST GRADIENT OFF OF COLOMBIA TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF MORE TYPICAL 20-25 KT TRADES...WITH ISOLATED AREA OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST AT NIGHT. SEAS ONLY EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE...PEAKING AROUND 10 FT SUN AND MON NIGHT AFTER NOCTURNAL MAX. FIRST PULSE OF N SWELL RECENTLY GENERATED BEHIND OLD W ATLC COLD FRONT TO REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS AND PASSAGES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SECOND LARGER PULSE EXPECTED SAT EVENING... BUILDING SEAS 8-9 IN THE PASSAGES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE TO E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND SEAS 7-9 FT IN MIXED NNW AND NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SECOND PULSE OF NNW SWELL ARRIVES SUN...BUILDING SEAS 9-10 FT N PORTIONS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM 25N65W TO 23N70W THEN SHEAR LINE THROUGH ERN CUBA INTO NW CARIB. NEW FRONT PROGRESSING SE AND ACROSS N PORTIONS...CURRENTLY FROM 31N61W TO 27N70W TO STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO PANHANDLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS GALES OCCURRING JUST N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MAY EXTEND TO 30N IN FREQUENT GUSTS. FRONT TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY S AND SE...E OF 70W...WITH UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING OUT...AND ANY GALES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED...6 HOUR OR LESS...AND THUS WILL NOT ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR WATERS S OF 31N. OF SIGNIFICANCE ARE OBS FROM BUOY 41048...RECENTLY REPORTING 20 FT...AND ABOUT 3 FT ABOVE WW3...AND COULD ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 FT OF LONG PERIOD ENERGY REACHING THE CARIB ISLANDS SUN. LARGE NW SWELL TO SPREAD SSE BEHIND FRONT NEXT 48 HOURS...RAISING SWH TO 11-15 FT N OF 25N E OF 72W TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE LIFTING N...WHEN SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE. SECOND WEAK FRONT TO SINK S ACROSS NW PORTIONS SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SETTLING JUST SE OF BERMUDA TUE. THIS WILL BRING RETURN OF FRESH TRADES TO S PORTIONS MON AND TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING