000 AGXX40 KNHC 221924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY FRESH IN THE E GULF WHERE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ARE PUSHING THROUGH BEHIND AN ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE GULF WITH 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THU. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MAY CLIP THE NE GULF THU BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE NW GULF AROUND THE HIGH...WITH RETURN FLOW SPREADING TO THE E GULF WATERS BY LATE FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE E. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH IT STILL SHOWS ONLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE THE NEW 12Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS WELL AS THE GEFS ALSO SHOW ONLY MODERATE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG. THE 12Z UKMET IS NOW THE OUTLIER SHOWING STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW THE INCREASINGLY SIMILAR ECMWF AND GFS PROGRESSION. HIGH PRES WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT... SLIDING OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN... USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUING IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE PRESENT ON THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF CUBA AND BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND SEAS OF 9-10 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE N OF 19N-20N IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. FRESH TRADES WILL ALSO SET UP S OF HISPANIOLA LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE TO E WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE AND SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A NEW COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED IN THE NW WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO S OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY A 1502 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER WATER...AND BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MELBOURNE WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO ITS EAST. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. SE-S MODERATE WINDS ARE PRESENT E OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY WED MORNING...STALLING OUT OVER THE SE WATERS BY THU MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP S OF 31N THU MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 29N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND BUILDING NW SWELL UP TO 12 FT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO 28N78W...BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES E OF THE REGION LATE FRI. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT MORNING REACHING FROM 31N75W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THEN FROM 31N58W TO 27N73W SUN MORNING...SHIFTING E OF THE AREA LATE SUN. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 29N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET SHOWING STRONGER WINDS S OF 29N BEHIND THE FRONT. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY