000 AGXX40 KNHC 211924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS FROM NE TO SW EXTENDING FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES IN THE SW GULF LOCATED NEAR 24N93W. LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PRIMARILY 1-3 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW HIGH PRES SYSTEM PUSHES DOWN FROM THE N TONIGHT THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE NEW HIGH PRES...QUICKLY REACHING A POSITION FROM SW FLORIDA TO 25N95W LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N94W TUE MORNING. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS (MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH)...AND BUILDING SEAS (3-5 FT) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE NEW HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFF OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO S OF BERMUDA BY LATE WED INTO THU ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE W GULF LATE WED INTO THU...EXPANDING TO ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE THU AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO THE E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS HAS SPED BACK UP WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT (THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SLOWER)...WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS EVEN FASTER STILL WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND GEFS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. USING A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS...THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI...QUICKLY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SAT MORNING...RAPIDLY EXITING THE GULF TO THE SE SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED MODERATE N-NE WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE NE-E WINDS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORT 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA AND RIDGING TO THE NE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU USHERING IN NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 20N IN THE LEE OF CUBA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BECOMING DIFFUSE ON FRI WITH THE WINDS BEHIND IT DIMINISHING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI...DIMINISHING SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. A SECOND SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS PARKED OUT ACROSS THE NW WATERS REACHING FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA THROUGH 29N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 70W...WITH E-SE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS E OF 70W. SEAS OF 3-5 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS (1-3 FT INSIDE)...EXCEPT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES S OF 22N WHERE SEAS OF 7-8 FT HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY SHIPS AND BUOYS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE EVENING AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE MORNING...FROM 31N63W TO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE EVENING...THEN FROM 31N54W THROUGH 25N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WED EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP S OF 31N THU...REACHING FROM 31N60W TO EASTERN CUBA THU EVENING...EXITING THE REGION BY FRI EVENING. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 11-12 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS LATE THU THROUGH FRI ALONG WITH A QUICK BURST OF 20-30 KT WINDS. HIGH PRES RACES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...RETREATING EASTWARD LATE FRI INTO SAT AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE CAROLINAS. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA SAT EVENING...SPRINTING EASTWARD AND STRETCHING FROM 31N53W TO 20N68W SUN EVENING. THE TIMING OF THIS LAST FRONT MAY EVEN BE FASTER IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY