000 AGXX40 KNHC 191915 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA TO 25N86W. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE E GULF BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS PRESENT AS SEEN BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS INDICATED BY RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE GULF. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BY MON...A THICKNESSES FALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER LONG-WAVE TROUGH SENDS A SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD AGAIN N OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE. THIS REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS SOME ACROSS THE GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTH OF BERMUDA BY LATE WED INTO THU ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY LOSE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA TO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN AND THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE MON THROUGH WED...DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING BY THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO 27N74W...CONTINUING SW AS A WARM FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WILL STALL OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED MODERATE NE-E WINDS SE OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO 11 FT AS INDICATED BY NDBC BUOY 41047 WHICH IS 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN 12 UTC WW3 MULTIGRID GUIDANCE. SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SUN. BY MON...THE AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE N WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE AGAIN SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC MON AND TUE REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MON NIGHT...FROM 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE MORNING...FROM 31N62W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WED MORNING...SHIFTING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THU. EXPECT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS. A RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 29N/30N THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY