000 AGXX40 KNHC 170748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY...AND SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF WATERS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO YESTERDAY. THE LAST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...LEAVING A BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TODAY..MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND IN THE FAR SW WATERS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FAR NE GULF...THAT WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTS GIVEN THE INCREASED INSTABILITY OF THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NE OFFSHORE ZONE...GMZ015 FOR THE WATERS N OF 28N FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE SW GULF WHERE THE GALES HAVE BEEN ACTIVE. BUOY 42055 IS REPORTING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 14 FT...AND IT IS LIKELY A LITTLE HIGHER FARTHER SW. THE FORECAST SHOWS HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS AT 16 FT OFF VERACRUZ...A LITTLE ABOVE WW3 INITIALIZATION...SUBSIDING TO 8 FT BY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF FRI THROUGH LATE SAT AS BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR 31N60W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE REGION. BUOYS SHOW SEAS TO 7 FT W OF 70W IN RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL...WITH 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL NOT LAST AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND OFF THE NC COAST TONIGHT. WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE AREA. SUSTAINED W WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING N OF 30N W OF 78W OFF NE FLORIDA...THEN VEER MORE N TO NE THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA IN PART DUE TO THE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE BUT ALSO THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS IN THE AREA INTERACTING WITH THE COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. A GALE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS N OF 30N W OF 78W FOR FRI. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRES WILL PUSH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TODAY...AND REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY FRI...AND 31N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...BEFORE STALLING FROM 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT. SUSTAINED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT COVER THE WATERS N OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SAT INTO SUN LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE FRONT INTO MON. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT N OF 28N THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT MAINLY SOUTH OF 14N. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU...THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE GMZ015 N OF 28N LATE TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AMZ111 N OF 30N W OF 78W FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN