000 AGXX40 KNHC 161848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT 16/1800 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N93W. ACCORDING TO THE 1528 UTC HI-RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS... NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALREADY REACHING GALE FORCE... MAINLY S OF 24N W OF 94W. A SHIP MOVING SOUTH NEAR TAMPICO ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITION...BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF IS ALSO REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 14 FT. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE THU. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU MORNING AND WILL BE SE OF THE AREA THU EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE OF GEORGIA BY THU ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE W TO E THU THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF SAT INTO SUN...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... BUOYS S OF 22N ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL...A REMNANT OF A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL EVENT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE S OF 22N THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG ROUGHLY 30N FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY THU...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THU...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W AND NW INCREASING TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU EVENING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS BRIEFLY REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 30N W OF 78W THU EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N65W TO EAST-CENTRAL CUBA FRI EVENING...THEN STALL FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT...AND DRIFT NW ON SUN WHILE WEAKENING. SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 13 FT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU INTO SAT...THEN START TO SUBSIDE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS N. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LATE THU THROUGH SAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT MAINLY SOUTH OF 14N. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU...THEN STALL AS A SHEAR LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ017 TODAY. .GALE WARNING GMZ023 TODAY AND TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR