000 AGXX40 KNHC 160711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF THROUGH LATE THU. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE TODAY AS RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER AIR RACES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 17 FT OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY EARLY TOMORROW. NW TO N WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE THU...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF SAT INTO SUN...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... BUOYS S OF 22N REPORT SEAS OF 8 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL...A REMNANT OF A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL EVENT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE S OF 22N THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG ROUGHLY 30N FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY THU...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THU...BUT DIFFER IN SPECIFICS OF LOCATION...TIMING...AND INTENSITY. FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE CENTER OF THE ROAD UKMET SHOWING THE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THU AROUND 1010 MB. THIS WILL ADD A REINFORCEMENT TO THE COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFF NE FLORIDA WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KT BY THU EVENING...THEN VEER MORE TO THE NW TO N THU NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 30 KT N OF 29N. THE LOW PRES LIFTS NE OF THE AREA BY THU NIGHT...LEAVING THE FRONT TO TRAIL FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FRI AND SAT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT. EXCEPT FOR THE MUCH WEAKER SREF...THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT N OF 29N THROUGH FRI...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 13 FT THU INTO SAT N OF 27N AS WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL DUE TO THE STRONG NE FLOW...THEN START TO SUBSIDE SUN. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LATE THU THROUGH SUN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...PRIMARILY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT...THEN STALL AS A SHEAR LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ017 TODAY. .GALE WARNING GMZ023 TODAY AND TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN