000 AGXX40 KNHC 151800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES TO NEW MEXICO WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND SHIFT E ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH WED NIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THU. THIS WILL REINFORCE A FRONT STALLED FROM PENSACOLA TO 25N96W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE S OF 26N WED MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO 17 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SWEEP ACROSS THE SE GULF BY THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND SAT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT OR LESS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW E OF 60W BETWEEN 1024 MB HIGH PRES ANCHORED NEAR 33N68W AND 996 MB LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. 8 TO 10 FT N SWELL PREVAILS OVER WATERS E OF 70W...BUT ARE SUBSIDING. W OF 60W LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 22N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 22N. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRES E OF THE AREA WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW E OF FLORIDA WILL INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING N FLORIDA. GFS ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 20N80W AND MOVING ENE FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS N-NE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL LOW N OF 30N THU NIGHT AND FRI THEN DIMINISHING N OF 29N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. LARGE N-NE SWELL TO 10 FT OVER TROP ATLC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT FROM N TO S THROUGH WED. N SWELL PUSHING INTO ATLC PASSAGES WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT...THEN STALL AS A SHEAR LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ017 WED. .GALE WARNING GMZ023 WED AND WED NIGHT. .GALE WARNING GMZ025 S OF 20N WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL