000 AGXX40 KNHC 140747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO 20N96W. N TO NE WINDS MAINLY AROUND 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW GULF WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MIXING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE NW GULF AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LIFTING NE...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND STALL TEMPORARILY FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE FAR SW GULF NEAR 18.5N 95.0W BY EARLY TUE. A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH TEXAS TUE INTO WED...PROVIDING A STRONG REINFORCING SHOT TO THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE W OF THE FRONT FROM THE TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ COASTS WED. GFS AND SREF OUTPUT INDICATED WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY WED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST JUST NE OF TAMPICO. THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WILL THE SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON OFF VERACRUZ NEAR 19N96W...WITH WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT PERSISTING OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 94W INTO THU. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT SHIFTING E THROUGH THE GULF BY EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... BROAD COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER N CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N48W WIT AND ESTIMATED MSLP OF 997 MB AND MOVING SE AT 10 TO 15 KT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 360 NM IN ITS SW QUADRANT. THE RESURGENCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FUELED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC. AS THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA...THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT COVER THE ATLC WATERS W OF 72W AND PUSHING AGAINST THE NORTHERN EXPOSURES FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...PROVIDING OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES OVER THE AREAS MAINLY S OF 22N...BY OTHERWISE MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE E FLOW. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF NE FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY FRI...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AS IT SHIFTS E AND REACHES A POSITION FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL TO 11 FT IMPACTING LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SEEPING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EVENTUALLY COVERING ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC ZONES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING EXPECTED GMZ023 S OF 20N W OF 93W THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN