000 AGXX40 KNHC 091808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST WED JAN 09 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FROM 30N83W TO 30N94W...TURNING SW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL BEND INTO A 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 29N97W...TRAILING COLD FRONT S OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS TO 25N98W. LIGHTING DATA INDICATES INTENSE LINES OF TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 93W ALONG SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. W WINDS AT 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT. SE-S WIND SHIFT AT 20-30 KT OVER WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN FRONT AND 88W...BUT EXPECTED THE AREA TO EXPAND E WITH 20-25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS N OF 22N E OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES E ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING FROM NEAR THE MS DELTA TO A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 24N95W...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING S TO THE S-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE ON FRI. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN W ON FRI AND SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 ENTIRE GULF WATERS EARLY SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AT THE TX COAST AT SUNRISE SUN. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KT W OF FRONT BRIEFLY SUN NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW E OF FRONT DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. CURRENT SCENARIO SEEMS TO REPEAT WITH FRONT STALLING FROM ROUGHLY THE MS DELTA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON...THEN RETURNING W ON MON NIGHT. AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT...AND EUROPEAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY USED TO TONE DOWN GFS...ONLY BLENDED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... EXISTING GALE WARNING VERIFIED BY SHIP MHMZ8 REPORTING 34 KT AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING WITHIN LARGE AREA OF SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 25-30 KT. ALTHOUGH SHIP PINX REPORTED 44 KT ITS POSITION IS ONLY A FEW NM FROM SHIP VRID4 REPORTING ONLY 32 KT. THEREFORE MAINTAINED MINIMAL GALE WARNING OF 30-35 KT. BUMPED UP MAX SEAS TO 16 FT ON 12Z SEA STATE...AND EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT OR SO AS PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS...BUT SHRINKING INWARDS FROM CURRENT 150 NM TO ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLC RIDGING WILL WEAKEN BEGINNING MIDDAY ON FRI. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN AND STRENGTHEN SOME MORE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SOME ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH RIDGE REPLACED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. NEXT ROUND OF LARGE MIXED N SWELL REACHES ALONG 22N NEAR 60W ON SAT...PROPAGATES SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SAT NIGHT...AND THE REACHES THE NE COAST OF S AMERICA LATE SUN NIGHT. BLENDED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH MANUAL EDITS NEAR GALE AREA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL LIFT NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SHIP REPORTS AND LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THE FRESH EASTERLY TRADES HAS SPREAD N ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 70-77W AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N E OF 70W. SHIPS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REPORTED 20 AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING...THUS DROPPED MENTION OF 30 KT IN THE PASSAGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE E OF 67W ON THU NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAX AT 25 KT ACROSS WATERS W OF 55W LARGE N SWELL WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 9-16 FT ON FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LARGE SWELLS ARRIVING AT THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AT 7-11 FT SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN NIGHT...FINALLY SUBSIDING LATE MON. BLENDED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON