000 AGXX40 KNHC 051959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS W GULF THIS AFTERNOON FROM E CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 24N95.5W THEN NE TO NEAR 27.5N91W. SUFFICIENT FETCH OF NNW WIND 20-30 KT TO W OF FRONT MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF 9-10 FT SEAS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS TO 11 AND 12 FT. PEMEX BUOY BMO S OF 20N IN W BAY OF CAMPECHE REPORTING SEAS TO 10 FT RECENTLY...WHILE BUOY CS1 JUST S OF 24N AND JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 12 FT PAST HOURS. MORNING WINDSAT PASS AND 15-16Z ASCAT PASSES SUGGESTED GALES TO THE W OF FRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW. LOW REMAINING STATIONARY ATTM AND EXPECTED TO RIDE SLOW ENE ALONG SHIFTING BOUNDARY NEXT 24 HOURS. WOULD EXPECT GRADIENT TO PERSIST W OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE THUS ISSUED AN UPDATE TO GULF OFFNT4 TO POST A BELATED GALE WARNING...LIKELY OCCURRING SINCE LAST NIGHT. GALES COULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE EVALUATED IN NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POTENTIAL EXTENSION. THE E PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SE GULF HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUN...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PARTICULARLY COLD. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL NOT ADVERTISING GALE FORCE WINDS AND OTHER ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PROBABILITY OF A GALE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND NOT FORECAST GALE WINDS THERE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. THEY ALL AGREE ON CARRYING A CUT OFF LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WED. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A NARROW E-W RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG 26N-27N CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WIND REGIME IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. A 1418 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND GIVEN LOW BIAS AT THAT SPEED...LIKELY CONFIRMS GALES PERSISTING ACROSS THAT AREA. THIS ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB. MODELS SUGGESTING GALE TO CONTINUE OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS THERE DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF ATLC AND WEAKEN GRADIENT SLIGHTLY...ONLY TO HAVE HIGH PRES SLIDE TO A POSITION N OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AND LIGHT UP THE WHOLE REGION S OF 22N WITH STRONG TRADES...AND GALES OFF COLOMBIA. LARGE AREA OF 10-12 FT SEAS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB MUCH OF NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS N PORTIONS ALONG 28N THEN SW INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY UNTIL SUN. THE NEXT DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST ON SUN AND CREATE A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF THE BAHAMAS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE AND CARRYING THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA ON SUN NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON ACROSS THE NW WATERS. FRESH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED INSIDE THE CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE S OF 22N. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT-MON...AND HIGH PRES SLIDES E INTO ERN U.S. LOOK FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP N OF BOUNDARY. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING...GMZ017. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING