000 AGXX40 KNHC 050719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOYS 42055 AND 42002 IN THE WESTERN GULF REPORTED 19 KT SE WINDS WITH 8 FT SEAS AND 25 KT E WINDS WITH 9 FT SEAS...RESPECTIVELY AT 0600 UTC. THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ITS WW3 ARE APPROXIMATELY 10 KT TOO WEAK WITH WINDS AND 2 FT TOO LOW WITH SEAS AT BUOY 42055 AND 5-10 KT TOO WEAK WITH WINDS BUT WITHIN A FOOT FOR SEAS AT BUOY 42002. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC ECMWF WAS SIMILAR. NEITHER MODEL APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF WELL AND ARE TOO LOW WITH SEAS AS A RESULT. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE ACCORDINGLY TO THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUN...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PARTICULARLY COLD. NEITHER THE 0000 UTC GFS NOR THE ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE 0000 UTC GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF A GALE. OTHER ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PROBABILITY OF A GALE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY... WITH THE 2100 UTC SREF ONLY SHOWING AS HIGH AS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AND THE FNMOC ENSEMBLES NOW SHOWING NO CHANCE. CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS PREDICTED....WILL KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND NOT FORECAST GALE WINDS HERE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. THEY ALL AGREE ON CARRYING A CUT OFF LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WED. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FROM TUE ONWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... AN E-W RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG 25N DOMINATES THE WIND REGIME IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE 0146 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS LIES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0000 UTC GFS AND NOGAPS MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT PASS THAN THE 0000 UTC ECMWF OR UKMET. THE GFS SHOWS 30-35 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE BY MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEFORE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TUE. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW AS HIGH AS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES HERE ON SUN MORNINGS...WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS DURING THOSE TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE MORE ACCURATELY INITIALIZED GFS SOLUTION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CONUS WHERE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS BY BUILDING A LESS AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AHEAD IN THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF LOW. THIS KEEPS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKER AND THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW GALES TUE OR WED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUITY...SO THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 30N55W THROUGH 30N70W TO PORT EVERGLADES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY UNTIL SUN. THE NEXT DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST ON SUN AND CREATE A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF THE BAHAMAS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE AND CARRYING THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA ON MON. FRESH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE REGION FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE S OF 22N. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPANDING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER SE WATERS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS... LOOK FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT ON MON. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF FROM TUE ONWARD. THIS WILL MEAN 5-10 KT WEAKER WINDS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND APPROXIMATELY 2 FT LOWER SEAS THAN THE GFS/WW3. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER