000
AGXX40 KNHC 030707 AAA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EST THU JAN 03 2013

...UPDATED FOR WARNING HEADLINES...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE 
N-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT STALLS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN 
FLUCTUATING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HINTS AGAIN AT A WEAK FRONTAL 
WAVE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY ALONG THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 
THE DEVELOPMENT. BUT EVEN THE GFS FILLS THE LOW TONIGHT BEFORE IT
REACHES THE TAMPA BAY AREA. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND 
ON THE STRENGTH OF NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20N96W ON FRI NIGHT WITH 
THE SREF TONING DOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS. WILL 
CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND OF A MINIMAL GALE ON FRI EVENING... 
MOSTLY DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WHICH IS NOW GALE 
CRITERIA IN THE HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE DOMAINS CORRESPONDING 
WITH THE PAST COASTAL WATERS PRACTICE OF POSTING A GALE WARNING 
FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. STILL EXPECTING A GALE IN THE 
SAME PLACE ON SUN EVENING. POPULATED GRIDS WITH BLEND OF LATEST 
GFS AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TWEAKING UP WINDS NEAR THE AREA WHERE 
THE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER THE HAZARD 
GRID.    

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 25N60W WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH 
FRI MORNING THEN E OF 55W LATE FRI AS A N-S TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR 
25N58W LATE FRI...CHANGING THE RIDGE ORIENTATION W OF THE TROUGH 
FROM E-W TO W-E ALONG 26N. A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS 
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SE AS THE SURFACE SHIFTS E. THE FRONT 
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY E-W ALONG 30-32N BETWEEN 40-72W 
LATE TONIGHT TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FL. 
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 
THE BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
INCREASE ON SUN MOVING THE FRONT E AGAIN WITH FROPA AT BERMUDA 
AND THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON AFTERNOON. POPULATED GRIDS WITH BLEND 
OF LATEST GFS AND OFFICIAL.   

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...ATLC HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E ALONG 27N MAINTAINING STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GFS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS 
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS NEAR 12N75W ON SAT BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS 
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE WARNING GMZ023 FRI EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
GMZ023 SUN EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON