000 AGXX40 KNHC 300757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW JUST HAVING PUSHED SE OF THE GULF AND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS...STRONG HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE IS BUILDING E ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF 89W...EXCEPT NE 25-30 KT S OF 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W AND LIGHTER NE 10-15 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION N OF 26N W OF ABOUT 94W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0400 UTC INDICATED SUCH WIND CONDITIONS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN NW AND N SWELLS S OF 27N E OF 94W...EXCEPT IN THE SW GULF GULF WHERE SEAS ARE MUCH HIGHER...IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN A NE SWELL COMPONENT. SEAS ARE LOWEST IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE THEY RANGE FROM 3-5 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NW ATLC BY MON EVENING WHILE LOW PRES DEVELOPS W OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE NLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...AND TO SE-S OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MON. SEAS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL TO RANGES OF 5-6 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE FAR NRN WATERS. THE LOW PRES W OF THE AREA WILL INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING PER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ...BUT AT A SLOWER PACE THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE EVENING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALONG WITH THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED ...AND TRACKS NEWD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON AND TO NE OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MORE RELEVANT TO INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WRN AND NRN GULF ZONES WED AND THU ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE. WITH RESPECT TO RELATED WIND FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRES FORECAST TO BUILD SE BEHIND IT WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF WED AND THU WITH NLY WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT WITH POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF 30 KT IN THE FAR WRN GULF ON WED. THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FORECASTS SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE WRN GULF WED WITH THE MAX OF 10 FT BEING BRIEF. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME S-SW AT 15-20 KT IN THE NE GULF ZONE WED AND THU WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-6 FT...AND SE-S 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE IN THE ERN GULF PORTIONS. WILL TWEAK WINDS/SEAS FOR DAYS 4 (WED) AND 5 (THU) BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT AS NECESSARY AS UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST CLEARED THE GULF OF MEXICO DOMAIN NOW REACHES FROM NEAR 31N71W SW THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS...TO STRAITS TO NW CUBA AND TO ACROSS ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES TO ITS E HAS SHIFTED TO JUST E OF 65W. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 8-11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N...AND 6-8 FT E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT IN NW-N SWELLS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT SEAS S OF 25N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. SEAS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FLATTENING UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY MOVE E AND SE REACHING A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WRN CUBA AROUND 12 UTC THIS MORNING...FROM NEAR 27N65W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS THEN AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TO N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY ALONG 20N BY MON MORNING AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY WHILE DISSIPATING LONG 20N TUE MORNING. INTENSIFY LOW PRES N OF THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE W OF THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS JUST TO THE E OF THE FORECAST ZONES OVER THE HIGH SEAS WATERS TONIGHT LEADING TO W-NW GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT THERE. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED N OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS WILL PROPAGATE SE AND PRODUCE A LARGE SWELL EVENT FOR THE REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TO REACH N COASTS OF LESSER ANTILLES MON EVENING AND INTO N LEEWARDS BY TUE MORNING...WITH 8-10 FT SWELL AT 15-16 SECONDS. THIS ENERGY WILL INDUCE VERY LARGE SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDING ENE ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE 20-25 KT TRADES ARE CONFINED TO S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0210 UTC LAST NIGHT DEPICTED THESE WINDS NICELY AS WELL AS SMALL POCKET OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN ADDITION...SHIP "C6RN3" HUGGING THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IT MOVES NE WITH LATEST POSITION OF 11.9N73.2 AT 0715 UTC IS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 30 KT WITH SEAS COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGES OF 6-9 FT IN AN E SWELL S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE MUCH LOWE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE IN AN E-SE SWELL. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE 5-7 FT IN A N-NE SWELL AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41300 AT 16N57.5W AND 41040 AT 14N53W. WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...BUT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD OVER THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC AS QUITE A IMPRESSIVE BATCH OF NW-N SWELLS MOVES INTO THAT PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS THERE BEGIN TO BUILD TO 12 OR 13 FT TUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT UNDER THE SW N ATLC SECTION PUSHES S TO NEAR 20N MOST LIKELY AS A SHEAR LINE. THE SEAS THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 FT WED WHILE MIGRATING FURTHER S ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT ALSO FILTER IN THROUGH THE EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE NW COASTS OF EXPOSED LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SHEAR LINE (REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY) SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AT THAT TIME. BY THU SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOULD BE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL COMPONENT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE