000 AGXX40 KNHC 290805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF AREA NOW EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW LOCATES OVER THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 25N91W AND TO INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28.5N86W SW TO 22N92W. BUOYS SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. S OF 27N E OF THE FRONT SLY WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0234 UTC LAST PICKED UP ON THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MATCHING THE BUOYS OBSERVATIONS VERY WELL. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING MAX WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH BUOY 42002 AT 26N94W WITH THE MAX 9 FT HEIGHT. E OF THE FRONT MAX WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 3-5 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 7 FT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG...AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGGED TO REACH FROM THE VICINITY OF N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER DURING THE MORNING...FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA AND KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO E OF THE GULF TONIGHT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT ...HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND GULF DOMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO SUN. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE E TO THE ATLANTIC BASIN MON ALLOWING FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MON. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA TUE...THEN POSSIBLY SLOW DOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES SWLY AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PER GFS/ECMWF 200-300 MB GUIDANCE. THE MODELS THEN TEND TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WED...WITH THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF AT THAT TIME. THIS LEADS TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 5 WITH RESPECT TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF THE FRONT AND LOW PRES LEADING INCREASING NLY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH THE PRESENT COLD FRONT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE EXPECT NLY WINDS BEHIND TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUN AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE E WITH LARGE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTING E. UNTIL THEN EXPECT THE STRONGEST N WINDS OF 25-30 KT BEHIND IT TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS THERE SHOULD MAX OUT TO AROUND 11 FT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 26N65W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ANALYZED FROM 29N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND IS KEEPING RELATIVELY LIGHT E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION WHERE INCREASING SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED IN THE BUOY REPORTS. ALSO NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE CONFINED TO BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA PER THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0234 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE RAPID EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND FROM NEAR 31N68W TO NW CUBA SUN MORNING...WITH ITS WESTERN SEGMENT WEAKENING. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 75W TODAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD N OF 28N THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NE-E THROUGH MON WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT REACHES THE FAR SE PORTION WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES BEHIND WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO NEAR 30N69W BY LATE MON...AND TO JUST E OF THE BASIN TUE. AS A RESULT...WINDS BECOME SE-S IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE N OF 27N WITH THE MODERATE WINDS IN RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS. S OF 27N WINDS BECOME NE-E AT 15-20 KT TUE...AND E 10-15 KT WED EXCEPT SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE FROM AND E TO SE IN DIRECTION AT 10-15 KT. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RAISE SEAS 8-18 FT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BY MON MORNING WITH PEAK ENERGY AIMED TOWARDS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS LARGE BATCH OF SWELLS IS FORECAST TO REACH GREATER ANTILLES LATE MON EVENING AND COULD PEAK NEAR 9 FT ALONG N COASTS TUE BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDING E-NE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE 20-25 KT TRADES PREVAIL BETWEEN 70W-80W BUT HIGH WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS REPORTED BY A FEW RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS. ONE OF THESE SHIPS... ...C6RN3...REPORTED COMBINED SEAS OF 13 FT EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL ONLY SUBSIDE A TAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MAX OF AROUND 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21N MON...WITH NE WINDS 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT/SHEARLINE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING...WHILE SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT. BY TUE THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/SEA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING INTO WED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE