000 AGXX40 KNHC 281950 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST NEAR 2.5N98W...WHERE IT HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH N END OF SEMI PERMANENT COASTAL TROUGH THAT PERSISTS ALONG 97W. S TO SE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT LAST NIGHT HAD GENERATED HIGH SEAS BY THIS MORNING WITH BUOY 42019 PEAKING AT 10 FT AT 12Z. SEAS STILL 6-8 FT AHEAD OF FRONT...AND BUOY 42019 NOW 8 FT BEHIND FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. FRONT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON...TO JUST E OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND GULF DOMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO SUN. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE E TO THE ATLANTIC BASIN MON ALLOWING FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MON. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA TUE. EXPECT STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WIND 25-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT IN SW GULF ZONE BY SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE SLIGHT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE WITH SEAS BEHIND FRONT. MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING N-NE WINDS TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING TUE BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO NEAR 26N68W THEN STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA KEYS INTO CENTRAL GULF. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT ACROSS NE PORTIONS LAST NIGHT HAVE SHIFTED NE AND OUT OF LOCAL WATERS....WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. NWLY SWELL BEHIND FRONT YIELDING SEAS 6-10 FT E OF 73W. GLOBAL MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FORECAST POSITIONS AND TIMING...WITH W PORTION OF FRONT LIFTING N INTO SE U.S. COASTAL LOW BY 12Z SAT...WHILE E PORTION DISSIPATES JUST NE OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE WEAK HIGH PRES AREA BEHIND IT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E-NE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE RACES EASTWARD. WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT IN INTENSITY...EXCEPT FOR THE NW WATERS WHERE SLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVANCING EASTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT...AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N68W TO NW CUBA SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT N OF 28N W OF 75W...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD N OF 28N THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NE-E THROUGH MON WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO NEAR 30N69W BY LATE MON...AND TO JUST E OF THE BASIN TUE. AS A RESULT...WINDS BECOME SE-S IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE N OF 27N WITH THE MODERATE WINDS IN RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS. S OF 27N WINDS BECOME NE-E AT 15-20 KT TUE...EXCEPT SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO SE AT 10-15 KT. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RAISE SEAS 8-18 FT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BY MON MORNING WITH PEAK ENERGY AIMED TOWARDS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS LARGE SWELL FORECAST TO REACH GREATER ANTILLES LATE MON EVENING AND COULD PEAK NEAR 9 FT ALONG N COASTS TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDING E-NE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE 20-25 KT TRADES PREVAIL BETWEEN 70-80W. PEAK SEAS WERE ANALYZED AT 13 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING AT 12Z FOLLOWING THE NOCTURNAL WIND MAX...LIKELY AT OR JUST BELOW GALE...WITH SEAS HAVING DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 11-12 FT THERE ATTM. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED E OF 80W THROUGH TUE...ALBEIT TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO NEAR 20 KT AS HIGH SLIDES BY DIRECTLY TO THE N. SECOND FRONT MOVING ACROSS SW N ATLC SUN-MON TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21N MON...WITH NE WINDS 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT/SHEARLINE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING...WHILE SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING