000 AGXX40 KNHC 280756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A WEAK RIDGE SW TO 26N90W. A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST AT 27.5N96W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO SW LOUISIANA. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MOIST SE FLOW OF 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED BETWEEN 96W AND A LINE FROM 29N91W TO 22N95W...WHILE LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE TO THE E OF THE SAME LINE. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT/LOW AND 96W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT NICELY CAPTURED THE SE 20-25 KT WINDS...AND LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT EXCEPT 4-6 FT N OF 21N W OF 91W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO POSITIONS AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. SO WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING...IT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON...TO JUST E OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND GULF DOMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO SUN. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE E TO THE ATLANTIC BASIN MON ALLOWING FOR YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MON. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA TUE. EXPECT STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN SW GULF ZONE BY SAT NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS MAINLY IN THE FAR SW PORTION. MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH TUE... EXCEPT FOR INCREASING N-NE WINDS TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING TUE BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. WILL BUILD SEAS A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DURING TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING FOR ZONES 11 AND THE NORTHERN PART OF ZONE 17. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. WILL ALSO USE LATEST GFS WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR REMAINDER SEAS AND FOR THE WINDS AS WELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N63W SW TO 26N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO ACROSS NW CUBA...AND TO THE FAR NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAK HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED TO THE W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY VARIABLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 29N...AND NW-N 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 75W...AND NE 10-15 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N. ASCAT SWATHS FROM JUST PASSED 0100 UTC/0300 UTC LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. OBSERVED SEA STATE IS IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN A NW SWELL NE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT 7-10 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 75W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE LOWER...IN THE RANGES OF 5-6 FT IN A NE SWELL BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 65W AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. SIMILARLY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FORECAST REASONING...WILL FOLLOW GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT FORECAST POSITIONS AND TIMING. WILL FORECAST THE COLD FRONT PORTION TO WEAKEN AS IT IT REACHES FROM NEAR FROM NEAR 26N65W TO EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...AND DISSIPATING JUST E OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN TONIGHT. THE WEAK HIGH PRES AREA BEHIND IT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT DESCRIBED RACES EASTWARD. WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT IN INTENSITY... EXCEPT FOR THE NW WATERS WHERE SLY WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVANCING EASTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE FORECAST TO PUSH OF THE SE U.S. COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING SAT...AND EXTEND ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA MON. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT N OF 28N W OF 75W...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD N OF 28N THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NE-E THROUGH MON WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO NEAR 30N69W BY LATE MON...AND TO JUST E OF THE BASIN TUE. AS A RESULT...WINDS BECOME SE-S IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE N OF 27N WITH THE MODERATE WINDS IN RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS. S OF 27N WINDS BECOME NE-E AT 15-20 KT TUE...EXCEPT SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO SE AT 10-15 KT. THE 7-10 FT SEAS N OF 29N BETWEEN THE PRESENT AND 75W WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND SAT...BUT BE REPLACED BY MICH HIGHER SEAS IN NW SWELLS WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE SAT THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT PER GRIDDED WAVEWATCH/ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WAS EVIDENT IN THE 0252 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W PER A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP REPORTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE AS THEY MAY EXPAND SOME TO THE E AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SHIFTS E. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN SUN THEN BECOME DIFFUSE MON. A SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE MON AND TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE