000 AGXX40 KNHC 200929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB BUILDS OVER NE COAST OF FLORIDA AND BRINGS A STEADY FRESH E TO SE BREEZE E OF 92W WHILE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT FORCES FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S RETURN BREEZE W OF 92W. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH ENTRANCE OF COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF WATERS EARLY TODAY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND TO ZONES S OF 26N TONIGHT AND FRI. GFS FEELS TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO BLEND WITH ECMWF GAVE A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO OF AREAS AND TIMING OF GALES. HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB BUILDS OVER GULF COAST STATES FRI BRINGS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OVER NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT. WINDS DIMINISH AND VEER E TO SE E OF 90W BY EARLY SUN WHILE MODERATE SE TO S BREEZE SETS W OF 90W. SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT AFTER SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 23N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA DRIFTING SE AND EXITING AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES 1020 MB AT 30N76W PROVIDE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE BEHIND FRONT THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN TODAY. HIGH PRES DRIFT E AND ALLOWS FRESH S BREEZE TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO A STRONG BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTERING NW CORNER OF BASIN LATE SAT NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN NORTHERN ZONES AS ATLC STORM N OF 31N SKIRTS EDGE OF ZONES. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ECMWF AND UKMET HOLDING SHY OF GALES S OF 31N. FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS AND ITS GALE SOLUTIONS DUE TO VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER STILL VERY WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS. ALL MODELS HAVE INCHED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTIONS WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES CANNOT BE DISCARDED NOR IGNORED. WINTER STORM SWINGS N SAT LOWERING CHANCES OF GALES AND EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING NW WINDS TO A STRONG BREEZE BY LATE SAT. LINGERING NW SWELLS SPREAD AS FAR S AS TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...EXCEPT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 70W TO 80W WHERE INCREASING FRESH ELY BREEZE PERSIST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE FURTHER FOR BRIEF PERIOD TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THEN STALL ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN SUN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA BY SUN AND WINDS DIMINISH OVER NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MON OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA BEHIND FRONT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...GALE WARNING S OF 27N. .GMZ013...GALE WARNING S OF 27N. .GMZ017...GALE WARNING W OF 95W. .GMZ011...GALE WARNING S OF 27N. .GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT S OF 21N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .AMZ111...GALE WARNING THU NIGHT N OF 30N. .AMZ113...GALE WARNING THU NIGHT N OF 30N. .AMZ115...GALE WARNING THU NIGHT N OF 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES