000
AGXX40 KNHC 190832
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FLORIDA TO 25N90W DISSIPATE TODAY AS 
HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB BUILDS OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  GENTLE 
TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT A FRESH S 
RETURN FLOW W OF 95W AHEAD OF MUCH STRONGER SECOND COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NW ZONES LATE WED NIGHT.  SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT W OF 95W AND 
5-7 FT E OF 95W THROUGH WED.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME TOGETHER IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF 
COLD FRONT...CLOSER TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  FRONT ENTERS GULF 
WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND QUICKLY 
BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT.  BY THE TIME TIME FRONT REACH FROM W TIP 
OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO THU...SUSTAINED GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL S OF 27N W OF 94W.  SEAS 
BUILD TO 12 FT AND CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT BY EARLY FRI AS 
GALE WINDS REACH OVER 40 KT. 

FRONT RUSHES SE OUT OF GULF FRI LEAVING BEHIND A HEALTHY 1031 MB 
HIGH PRES CENTER OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL SUSTAIN NEAR GALE NW-N 
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SEAS 12-13 FT AND 
STRONG NE OVER MOST OF REMAINDER GULF E OF 95W...SEAS 8-11 FT.   
HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND MOVES E VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO FRESH 
NE TO E BREEZE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT SUN .

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO SE FLORIDA BRINGS STRONG NW 
WINDS W OF BOUNDARY WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO 10 FT N OF 
FRONT E OF 75W.  FRONT RACES E OF BASIN TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH 
PRES 1020 MB TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND SPREAD LARGE LONG PERIOD N 
SWELLS S TO REACH TROPICAL ATLC ZONES BY FRI.  HIGH PRES IS THEN 
FORCED E BY VERY STRONG SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY INTO NW 
CORNER OF SW N ATLC LATE THU NIGHT.  THIS FRONT BRINGS SUSTAINED 
GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 31N...AND LIKELY GALE FORCE GUST S OF 
31N...AND SEAS NEAR 15 FT THROUGH LATE FRI.  COLD FRONT RACES SE 
AND REACH FROM 25N65W TO NW HISPANIOLA BY LATE SAT AND E OF AREA 
BY LATE SUN.  MODEL GUIDANCE FINALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FRONT...BUT DUE TO VERY COLD AIR MASS OF 
THIS FRONT WINDS COULD EXTEND THEIR STAY AND SWELLS BE FURTHER W 
THAN CALLED FOR IN SOLUTIONS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...HIGH PRES 
CENTER OVER SW N ATLC TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO A FRESH E BREEZE FROM 70W TO 80W WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8 FT TODAY AND TO 10 FT IN E SWELLS B Y LATE THU.  SECOND 
FRONT OVER SW N ATLC FORCES HIGH PRES EASTWARD AND GRADIENT 
WINDS DIMINISH...THEN FRONT ENTERS ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 
FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT SPREAD FROM THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ZONES EASTWARD TO EVENTUALLY COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN BY 
LATE SUN.  

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU W OF 96W...
.GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI S OF 22N W OF 94W.
.GMZ011...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU S OF 27N...

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES