000 AGXX40 KNHC 180745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 30N85W TO JUST E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO BRING FRESH BREEZE N OF 29N E OF FRONT AND N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM W OF FRONT...SEAS REMAIN 3-5 FT. FRONT SLIDE E OF GULF TODAY AND 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDS OVER EASTERN GULF AND N FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND WED WITH WINDS BECOMING A GENTLE BREEZE. FRESH TO STRONG S RETURN FLOW W OF 95W SETS UP AHEAD OF SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS TEXAS WED NIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND INCREASE RAPIDLY W OF SECOND COLD FRONT EARLY THU REACHING NEAR GALE STRENGTH AT THE ONSET OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ MEXICO LATE THU WITH GALE FORCE NW WINDS EXPECTED W OF 94W...SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 13-15 FT. LATEST ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS NOW LEAN TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION WITH GALES IN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 14-15 FT SEAS...WHILE UKMET REMAINS STEADFAST SHORT OF GALE FORCE. FORECAST NOW FOLLOWS GFS SOLUTION IN TIMING AND STRENGTH EXPECTING GALE FORCE GUSTS W OF FRONT THU AND SUSTAINED GALES S OF 26N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS REACHING 13 FT THU AND FRI. FRONT EXITS GULF WATERS EARLY FRI LEAVING IN ITS WAKE FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...SLIGHTLY LESS N OF 24N W OF 96W. HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 BUILDS BEHIND FRONT FRI AND WEAKENS AS IT SHIFT EASTWARD BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... FIRST COLD FRONT FROM GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS SW N ATLC TODAY WITH STRONG SW BREEZE N OF 28N WITHIN 270 NM E OF BOUNDARY AND FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW N OF 29N TO ITS W...HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED 9-10 FT. FRONT STRETCHES FROM 28N65W TO WINDWARD CHANNEL EARLY WED AND E OF BASIN LATE WED. HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB BUILDS IN ITS WAKE THU...BUT QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN LATE THU WITH GALE FORCE SW WINDS JUST N OF 31N AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE GUSTS S OF 31N...SEAS BUILD UP TO 10 FT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TO 14 FT W OF BOUNDARY. SECOND FRONT REACHES FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRI AND NEAR EXTREME SE CORNER OF BASIN BY LATE SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF BOUNDARY E OF BAHAMAS. LINGERING SWELLS UP 12-13 FT EXPECTED E OF BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN AS FAR S AS THE GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PASSAGES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE IS FORCE E BY INCOMING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING SW NA ATLC. THIS EASES PRES GRADIENT OVER CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAINS MODERATE E BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. THE BUILDING OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WED AND THU JUST N OF BASIN TIGHTENS GRADIENT BACK AND ALLOWS E-NE FRESH BREEZE TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL SECTION BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SEAS BUILDS TO 8-9 FT WED AND THU AND TO 10 FT ON FRI. RIDGE COLLAPSES AS SECOND COLD FRONT FORCE IT EASTWARD DIMINISHING WINDS AGAIN BY SAT AND SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU W OF 96W... .GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI S OF 22N W OF 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES