000 AGXX40 KNHC 161955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC SW TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF. LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER ERN TEXAS. CURRENT BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF...AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE LATEST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION EXCEPT FOR 2-4 FT FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND 4-5 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 94W AS SEEN IN THE REPORTS FROM BUOYS 42020 AT 27N97W AND 42019 AT 28N95.5W. LATEST NWS RADAR ANIMATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VERY MOIST ONGOING SLY FLOW TO BE CONFINED OVER SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF WATERS. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE REGION OF THE U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DOMAIN. WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING FORECAST CHANGES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE ACROSS TEXAS AND OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. LIKE SIMILAR FORECAST THINKING...THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MON MORNING...THEN TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA SW TO 25N88W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUE...AND TO SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NW AT AROUND 15 KT WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 23N TO 25N W OF 95W. THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE QUICKLY MOVES E TO THE FAR NE GULF AND NE FLORIDA AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND TO THE FAR WRN ATLC E OF NE FLORIDA BY LATE WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL...BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AND THU IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE MOST IN THE FAR WRN PORTION WED...THEN DIMINISH WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASING SLY WINDS IN THE FAR WRN EXPECT SEAS THERE BUILD TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT WED. MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND FORECAST OF THE FRONT AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TINNING AND FORECAST POSITIONS ACROSS THE GULF. THE GFS IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODEL RUNS. WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS FOR THIS FORECAST WHILE MAINTAINING CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST COLD FRONT POSITIONS ACROSS THE GULF....AND WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH FROM NE FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND TO SE OF THE GULF FRI MORNING. A COLD AND STRONG HIGH PRES AREA...THE FIRST OF THE EARLY WINTER...WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE GULF THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT SLIDES ENE OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION. THE HIGH WILL VERY LIKELY CREATE A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BRINGING N WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES DURING THU. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE SW GULF ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT THU WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. THE HIGH PRES AREA WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE GULF THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT SLIDES ENE OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION. THE STRONG N WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH FRI WHILE BECOMING MORE N-NE IN DIRECTION WITH THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE HIGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON...AND NE-E AT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHTER SPEEDS E AT 10-15 KT IN THE NW PART BY LATE FRI. FOR SEAS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE GRIDDED WWIII AND ECMWF WAVES FOR MAX SEAS ON THU AND FRI WITH VALUES OF 13-14 FT IN THE SW GULF LATE THU INTO FRI...AND IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT ELSEWHERE. SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NW TO SE LATER DURING FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE BASIN. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS NOTE NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF 27N W OF 67W EXCEPT NE 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND SE 10-15 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS. N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WINDS ARE N OF 27N E OF 66W. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN NE SWELLS N OF 27N E OF 66W...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 5-8 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND 3-4 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT FROM 24N TO 28N E OF 71W. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD TO E OF THE FORECAST ZONES ON TUE.THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE EVENING AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE TO ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL PRECEDE THE N OF ABOUT 28N PER GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AND FOLLOWED BY W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 6-9 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO AROUND 8-12 FT BEHIND IT ON WED...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS N OF 29N PER WWIII/ECMWF AND WAVE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT THESE SEAS QUICKLY TO THE E BY LATE WED SIMILAR TO THE UKMET BUT LATER DURING THE WED. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO SHIFT ESE THU AND FRI AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU. THIS FRONT...SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS ONE MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL BE PRECEDED BY SW 20-25 KT WINDS AND FOLLOWED BY STRONGER NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT PER GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A WEAK PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES AS WEAK ATLC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS INTO EARLY WED. THE TRADES INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING LATER WED AND THROUGH THU AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. NE SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 6 FT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 9 OR 10 FT DUE TO A SET OF NEW NW-N SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRI. THE SRN PORTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED THROUGH THU...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS ATLC HIGH PRES BRIDGES SE ACROSS IT. THIS WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NE SET OF NW-N SWELLS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NRN WATERS AS STATED ABOVE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE