000
AGXX40 KNHC 160834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS GETS REINFORCING 
SURGE AND MOVE SE INTO NW PORTIONS OF BASIN LATE SUN NIGHT OR 
EARLY MON.  SLY RETURN FLOW W OF 95W INCREASES TO FRESH BREEZE 
AHEAD OF FRONT AND SHIFTS NW BEHIND BOUNDARY AS FRONT STRETCHES 
FROM NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N91W TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO.  
STRETCHES FROM VERY DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE MID-WEST S TO S 
CENTRAL TEXAS. 

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WAKE OF FRONT AND BRINGS BACK GENTLE TO 
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE TILL SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF ZONES LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SECOND FRONT WITH ALL MODEL 
INDICATING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS THU AND FRI.  
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS W OF 95W WHILE 
ECMWF AND UKMET HOLD SHORT OF IT.  FORECAST BRINGS SUSTAINED 
WINDS TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO ABOVE GALE FORCE.
SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 120-15 FT IN EXTREME 
SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 8-12 ELSEWHERE S OF 27N W OF 95W BY FRI. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERS FROM 29N55W TO 22N65W AND 
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF REGION TODAY AND DISSIPATE...LEAVING 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN.  GENTLE SE 
FLOW ALONG FLORIDA E COAST SUN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH 
ENTER NW CORNER OF BASIN EARLY TUE.  MOST OF STRONG WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 8 FT ARE TO REMAIN N OF 28N THROUGH LATE WED.  HIGH PRES 
1021 MB BUILDS OVER MIDDLE OF BASIN THROUGH FRI IN ANTICIPATION 
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEFINITELY BRING A TOUCH 
OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...GENTLE TO 
MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SEAS 4-5 FT.  
CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE STARTS STRENGTHENING BACK ON WED AS LOW PRES 
AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH MOVE NE OUT OF AREA AND PRES GRADIENT 
INCREASES AGAIN.  BY THU...FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE COVER 
LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 68W TO 80W THEN SPREAD 
FURTHER W BY FRI. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES