000 AGXX40 KNHC 060852 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 855 AM EST THU DEC 6 2012 CORRECTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODEL TREND SEEN YESTERDAY TOWARD A MORE INTENSE DEEP-LAYERED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF HAS PANNED OUT WHEN COMPARED TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN A BIT AS IT SLIDES SE TODAY. BY FRI...DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING BUILDING IN THE U.S. PLAINS STATES WILL ENHANCE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING FRESH FRI INTO SAT. BY SUN...A NEW STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF. THE 0000 UTC GFS IS ON THE FAST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS FRONT WHILE THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...UKMET...AND CMC ARE ALL SLOWER CARRYING IT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. THE GFS ALLOWS WINDS TO GET TO 40 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AROUND 1800 UTC MON WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT WINDS THERE AT 0000 UTC TUE. THE HPC SURFACE PROGS FAVORED A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION THAN EVEN THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 0000 UTC GFS WHICH APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HPC THINKING AND THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... WEAKENING HIGH PRES ABOUT 200 NM W-SW OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE NE FLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...BUT THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED ACCORDING TO THE 0410 UTC 0SCAT PASS. BY THE WEEKEND...TRADES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN TO THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT BY LATE MON AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AND SHOVES THE DRIVING HIGH PRES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS REASONABLE HERE. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... HIGH PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 200 NM W-SW OF BERMUDA IS BEING COMPROMISED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE N AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 78W OVER THE BAHAMAS. FRESH WINDS CONTINUE OVER WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 25N AND E OF THE TROUGH. THE 0000 UTC GFS SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE EXPANSE OF FRESH WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. JASON1 AND JASON2 PASSES AROUND 2100 UTC SHOW 8-10 FT SEAS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 25N AND BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE VALUES. THE 0000 UTC WW3 IS CLOSER TO THE OBSERVATIONS THAN THE SLIGHTLY LOWER EC WAVE MODEL INITIALLY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. THE 0000 UTC GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WIND BUILDING E OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF...WILL GIVE THE EDGE TO THE STRONGER GFS HERE. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT E THROUGH FLORIDA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND BY THE INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BUILDING TROUGH TO THE W THAT WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD MON OVER NW WATERS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING TROUGH THE GULF AND SE UNITED STATE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THIS FRONT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER