000 AGXX40 KNHC 051833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST WED DEC 5 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT SE OF THE TEXAS COAST WILL WEAKEN IN THE WEST- CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU. A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI...WITH FRESH S-SE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON MORNING AND RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED TO PREPARE THE FORECAST GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 1500 UTC SHOWED A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO S OF HAITI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH S OF HISPANIOLA AS HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THU NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIKELY SAT THROUGH MON. FORECAST GRIDS BASED PRIMARILY ON GFS MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES PAST THE NORTHERN WATERS. A TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N73W TO 24N75W WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DRIFTS W INTO FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. THE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WATERS FLORIDA E COAST WATERS THROUGH FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NE OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 28N FRI AND SAT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME E-SE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE W OF 75W SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED TO UPDATE THE MARINE FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL