000 AGXX40 KNHC 041740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES E OF THE CAROLINAS SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0550 UTC SHOWED FRESH E-NE WINDS PERSISTING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WW3 WAVE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ABOUT 1 FT LOW WITH THE SEAS IN THE STRAITS AGAINST THE CURRENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN IN THE CENTRAL GULF THEN DISSIPATE THU...WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY FRI...DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING BUILDING IN THE U.S. PLAINS STATES WILL ENHANCE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING FRESH THROUGH SUN. A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES E OF THE CAROLINAS SUPPORTING FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS WERE BUMPED UP A BIT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE WW3 TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED STRONG WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE PASSAGES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED THROUGH THU WHILE LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PICK UP IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER S AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES E OF THE CAROLINAS WEAKENS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST NORTHERN WATERS THU THROUGH FRI WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NNW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL