000
AGXX40 KNHC 031855
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST MON DEC 03 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS DRIVES WIND OVER 
GULF THROUGH TUE.  FRESH TO STRONG E BREEZE AND SEAS 5-7 FT S OF 
25N E OF 85W...INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH SEAS HIGHER 
THROUGH STRAIT OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WINDS BLOW 
AGAINST ESTABLISHED CURRENT.  DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL 
STATES PUSH HIGH PRES CENTER E TONIGHT...ENHANCING A MODERATE TO 
FRESH SLY RETURN W OF 96W TONIGHT AND TUE...AHEAD OF FRONTAL 
ENTRY INTO NW ZONES WED.  EUROPEAN GUIDANCE A BIT MORE 
AGGRESSIVE THAN UKMET AND GFS...SO FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF 
THE ROAD APPROACH TO BOTH THE SLY RETURN FLOW AND THE 
NORTHERLIES W OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
OVER CENTRAL GULF THU WITH HIGH PRES REBUILDING FRI AND 
ESTABLISHING MODERATE TO FRESH SLY RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...HEALTHY 
HIGH PRES OFF CAROLINA COAST DRIVE FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL 
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND FORCING NE SWELLS ACROSS ATLC PASSAGES 
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BASIN.  GLOBAL MODELS UNABLE TO  
PROPERLY REFLECT SEAS AS HIGH AS OBSERVED DUE TO LOCAL FUNNELING 
EFFECTS WITHIN WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...SO FORECAST INCREASE 
AN ARBITRARY 2-3 FT TO GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS.  ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO 
MODERATE NE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THROUGH FRI AS CENTRAL 
ATLC HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY SURFACE TROUGH SW OF THE WEAK ATLC 
DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED N OF 31N LAST NIGHT.  WEAK LOW PRES 
CENTER 1010 MB DEVELOPED AT 20N58W IN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THIS 
AFTERNOON...DEEPEN TONIGHT AND RACE NE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AWAY 
FROM REGION WITH MINIMAL INCREASE IN WIND OR SEAS.   

SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W...
HIGH PRES OFF CAROLINA COAST DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS 
ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TUE.  HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT VEERING WINDS E TO SE AND DIMINISHING WED 
AND THU...THEN FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
WATERS ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO REBUILD W FRI AND SAT INCREASING 
WINDS S OF 24N AND SPREADING N SUN.  

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES