000 AGXX40 KNHC 021910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF TODAY...SOUTH OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE GULF WATERS WHERE CMAN DATA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E FLOW IS PERSISTING. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FLOWING AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT...ELEVATING SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS UP TO 8 FT. WEAK JET DYNAMICS ALOFT IS ALLOWING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N93W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SLIDES EAST...ALLOWING THE FRESH NE TO E FLOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO DIMINISH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO SWEEP THE GULF AS SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LATEST 02/12 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A SHARPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER OF THE UPPER PATTERN STILL ALLOWS THE FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...LITTLE INCREASE IN WINDS OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... AT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS IS MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WATERS S OF CUBA. A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SHIP BATFR53 SHOWING WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OFF CAP DAME MARIE HAITI AT THE SOUTH END OF THE PASSAGE. THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE UNTIL AFTER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS ALSO NOTED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PREVAIL. LONG PERIOD. NE SWELL IS ELEVATING COMBINED SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 7 FT. HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME...THE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL HAVE WEAKENED...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...LEAVING LIGHT TO GENTILE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO TO 24N66W...REACTING TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 28N W OF 65W. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED IN BUOY...SHIP...AND AN ASCAT 14 UTC PASS IN THIS SAME AREA. BUOY 41047 NEAR 27.5N 71.5W IS SHOWING SEAS TO 11 FT. FARTHER UPSTREAM SHIP ELPF9 IS SHOWING SEAS TO 10 FT NEAR 30N6W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE AREA COVERED BY THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHRINK TO S OF 25N BY EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRES SAGS SOUTHWARD...AND WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE WED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM N TO S ACCORDINGLY. BY THU...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING S OF 31N...REACHING 28N BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING INTO FRI. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT SEAS TO 7 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN PART DUE TO N AND NE SWELL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN