000 AGXX40 KNHC 012004 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST FRI DEC 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 35N WILL CONTINUE DRIVE THE WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SE QUAD AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHERE WW3 WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW BUT A 2-3 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF STATES ALONG 33N WED AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND PUSH IT EASTWARD TUE INTO WED...WITH GUIDANCE NOW PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND ALONG 30N ACROSS THE W ATLC THU-FRI. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE GULF. A 0940 UTC JASON PASS ACROSS THE STRAITS SHOWED SEAS 8.5 FT THERE AND LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE HIGHEST SEAS TO THE W WITHIN THE FLORIDA CURRENT. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BUMP UP THE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS 2-3 FT UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WED. SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER AROUND 6-8 FT WITH MAX AT LEAST 9 FT AGAINST CURRENT THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... SHEAR LINE N OF THE AREA THEN THROUGH SE BAHAMAS AND TO E CUBA IS FORCING GRADIENT WINDS TO REMAIN N OF THE BASIN...BUT IS BEGINNING TO ONLY ALLOW GRADUALLY FRESHENING WINDS TO PENETRATE NW PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE LEE OF CUBA. OTHERWISE... MODERATE TO LIGHT MAINLY NE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT TUE. SHEAR LINE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SE PAST 24 HOURS...AND EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR MONA PASSAGE BY MON MORNING...ALLOWING FRESHENING FLOW TO FILTER THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING SUN EVENING AND INCREASING THROUGH MON-TUE...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 9 FT THEN. FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHIFTING HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE WITH FORCE SHEAR LINE FURTHER SE MON-TUE...AS LLVL TROUGHING N OF MONA PASSAGE INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS SW N ATLC. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OF AN STRETCHED AND ELONGATED VORT LOBE LIFTING OUT NE INTO MID ATLC TROUGH BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING HIGH PRES AND REMNANTS OF SHEARLINE TO MOVE TO NE CARIB...AND FRESH TO STRONG FLOW TO BUILD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIB. HAVE BLENDED ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH STRONGER EMPHASIS NOW ON GFS. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... SHEAR LINE BEGINNING TO BECOME SADDLED OR BOWED ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF LLVL TROUGHING N OF MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT PERSISTING WITHIN 300-330 NM N OF SHEAR LINE INTO BAHAMAS TO N COAST OF CUBA. SEAS 8-11 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 5-7 FT LEE OF BAHAMAS. ATLC BUOYS S OF 22N HAVE RISEN 1-3 FT SINCE THIS 12Z. WW3 1-2 FT LOW JUST E OF BAHAMAS...WHILE ECWAVE BETTER ON SRN PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED WAVE FIELD. GRADIENT HAS RELAXED EVER SO SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITHIN RIDGE...BUT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AS REINFORCING HIGH SHIFTS OFF CAROLINA COASTS...FORCING SHEARLINE FURTHER SE TO NEAR MONA PASSAGE MON MORNING AND INTO PUERTO RICO TUE. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT TROUGH N OF MONA PASSAGE WILL NOT EVOLVE INTO SURFACE LOW UNTIL FEATURE SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLC TROUGH BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER...AREA OF STRONG WINDS N OF SHEARLINE SUN NIGHT-MON COULD INCREASE TO 25-30 KT AND BUILD SEAS 10-13 FT. HAVE YET TO BUMP UP WINDS THIS HIGH IN FORECAST...AND WAITING FOR BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS-ECMWF. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING